Critical fact about information battlefield is that Russia doesn't want to spread pictures of Ukrainian dead to dampen Ukrainian rage, whereas Ukrainians have an interest in milking every Russian corpse (real; their own in friendly fire; or invented) for all its worth.
There's a logic to this. Ukrainians know they're outmatched, so when the victory propaganda reaches some critical level of incredibility, they will collapse dramatically. Previously objective Western mil-analysts like Kofman support Ukraine & tow this line.
This creates a warped impression of the facts on the ground. But maps tell the story. You cannot accomplish this over 4 days if you're having your columns lighted up every hour.
You can see the propaganda offensive in many other spheres as well. For instance, there are intense efforts to blow Russian relatively tiny anti-war protests out of proportion; to create FUD around Chinese support for Russia's position; etc.

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More from @akarlin0

Feb 28
Powerful take incoming: The main lesson China actually learns from Russia/Ukraine is to strike the US military bases at Guam and Japan when invading Taiwan FROM THE OUTSET.

Current WW3 hysteria is stupid. But as of today, risks of a Pacific War II have gone up drastically IMO.
There is a wave of social media hysteria driven demands for an NFZ. Despite Biden ruling out intervention in Ukraine, the EU of all entities has decided to play hardball, up to the point of apparently sending fighters and pilots to fight in Ukraine
Currently, China has a choice between limiting the operation to just Taiwan from the outset, but risking failure in the event of a US intervention *should it materialize*; or crippling American assets first, and only then proceeding with the invasion with a higher success chance.
Read 5 tweets
Dec 27, 2021
Egor Prosvirnin (@Empire1721). 1986-2021.

Certainly not an obituary I expected to have to write in 2021. I extend my condolences to his wife @M_Prosvirnina, his family, and his close friends.
Prosvirnin was perhaps the single most important figure in mainstreaming intellectual Russian nationalism & "rehabilitating" the Russian Empire amongst Russian millennials & zoomers in 2010s through the Sputnik & Pogrom journal, with its stellar aesthetics & historical longreads.
The influence of sputnikipogrom.com extended even to the Russian diaspora. It was to him above all others that I owe my transition from "normie" pro-Putin vatnik to Russian nationalism.

In person, he was larger than life. Rolled 10/10 on the Charisma stats. Huge loss.
Read 12 tweets
Oct 16, 2021
For the first time possibly since some random year in the late Middle Ages, Moscow (right) will have lower homicide rate than prestigious London (left) in 2021.

London: 1.4/100k murders in 2020, no change this year.

Moscow: 1.4/100k murders in 2020, down 21% this year to date. ImageImage
This is a drastic improvement not just relative to "The 1990s", but even the late Soviet period. genby.livejournal.com/680949.html

Late 1980s: ~5/100k
1990s: ~25/100k
2010: ~5/100k
2015: ~3/100k
2020: 1.4/100k
2021: Will be ~1.1/100k on current trends Image
Moreover, some part of Moscow's murders will still be of the middle-aged alcoholics knifing each other during vodka binge tradition (if much less than before due to rapid decline in alcoholism), so "the streets" have de facto been safer than London's for quite a while now anyway.
Read 7 tweets
Oct 6, 2021
Russia's Nationalist Turn: How Putin Created the Russian National State unz.com/akarlin/russia…

I consider this the capstone to my "Russia watching" career since the "Russian Spring" of 2014. 9,200 words, so here's the summary. /1 Image
In 2017, I defined the aims of modern Russian nationalism as follows: unz.com/akarlin/russia…

1. Cessation of political prosecutions for "hate speech" under Article 282.
2. End to mass immigration.
3. The regathering of the Russian lands.

All three have been committed to. /2
1. Decriminalization of Article 282 in 2018 means no more prosecutions for criticizing federal subsidies to the Caucasus; you now have to try really hard to fall afoul of these laws. Freedom of speech now de facto at V4 levels; above W. Europe & US. unz.com/akarlin/countr… /3
Read 28 tweets
Aug 31, 2021
Why is it never a White man and a Black woman? 🤔 (rhetorical question) rt.com/russia/533560-… ImageImage
Sushi chain Tanuki's Instagram team has been pushing Western Woke/LGBT and now #BLM subliminal messaging into Russia for a year now. unz.com/akarlin/woke-c… ImageImage
Things become more powerful. Russian feminist points out Tanuki owner Alexander Orlov is a shitlord who says he doesn't hire fat people & makes sexist jokes ("Do I have to kneel because I'm black?" "No, because you're a woman").
Read 4 tweets
Aug 18, 2021
Taliban Rule Is the Democratic Will of 13% of Afghans unz.com/akarlin/taliba…

Support for sharia ≠ support for the Taliban! The *Islamic* Republic of Afghanistan had sharia, for that matter.
Patterns in pro-Taliban sentiment & "conservative"/Islamist sentiments, from high to low:
Regions: SW >> old Northern Alliance > Kabul > center
Ethnic: Pashtuns >> Uzbeks > Tajiks >> Hazara
Sex: Men > women
Age: ~equal
Income: High income > low income (but likely inflects at top)
Only the income patterns are a surprise, but congruent with @RichardHanania's observation that many Taliban are well educated.

Could be related to how petite bourgeoisie were core supporters of many European fascisms? 🤔
Read 8 tweets

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