Powerful take incoming: The main lesson China actually learns from Russia/Ukraine is to strike the US military bases at Guam and Japan when invading Taiwan FROM THE OUTSET.
Current WW3 hysteria is stupid. But as of today, risks of a Pacific War II have gone up drastically IMO.
Current WW3 hysteria is stupid. But as of today, risks of a Pacific War II have gone up drastically IMO.
https://twitter.com/ArtyomLukin/status/1497891153064169474
There is a wave of social media hysteria driven demands for an NFZ. Despite Biden ruling out intervention in Ukraine, the EU of all entities has decided to play hardball, up to the point of apparently sending fighters and pilots to fight in Ukraine
https://twitter.com/sotiridi/status/1498080359195586567
Currently, China has a choice between limiting the operation to just Taiwan from the outset, but risking failure in the event of a US intervention *should it materialize*; or crippling American assets first, and only then proceeding with the invasion with a higher success chance.
So one plausible scenario now is that China embarks on its Taiwan campaign, coalition of democratic journos/mil-analysts hype otherwise meager Taiwanese successes, and the US is driven into intervention by politicians pandering to wave of media & Twitter/Reddit driven rage.
This is much likelier than in Ukraine because (1) Taiwan obv. much more important, (2) policy of strategic ambiguity gradually shifting to commitment, (3) Americans being more eager for a war with China.
"Solution" to this problem: Missile strikes on Guam and Japan from outset.
"Solution" to this problem: Missile strikes on Guam and Japan from outset.
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