Thread by @DrRadchenko

This war is obviously not going well for Putin. Consider Czechoslovakia in 1968: the invasion was largely unopposed, the Czechoslovak leader was arrested on the second day, flown to Moscow. The West just swallowed it. What we have today in Ukraine is playing out very differently.

The possibility of escalation and carnage remains. I would not rush to write Russia off as a paper tiger at this point. The situation is dangerous precisely because the war is not going well. Which brings us to the question of rationality.

Is Putin unhinged or has he miscalculated? In my recent piece for the War on the Rocks I talked about brinksmanship as a foreign policy strategy, and how war can happen (and has happened) as a result of miscalculation. warontherocks.com/2022/02/moscow….

I still think brinksmanship/miscalculation is the right frame to understand Putin's decision-making. If you think the other side will fold fast, and that the world has already resigned itself to Ukraine being in the Russian "sphere", the risks seem manageable.

He gambled, and he failed, and that's why we are back to brinksmanship with nuclear threats. Nuclear brinksmanship is underpinned by rational calculations about the other side's likely reaction. Khrushchev's certainly was (see my War on the Rocks piece: warontherocks.com/2021/12/the-be…).

What is important in this situation? First. To understand that it's not over until it's over. For all we know, the war hasn't even fully begun. We are in an extremely dangerous phase of this conflict.

Second. Assume that Putin is rational. True, he may just be crazy, in which case we are doomed. But we can't do anything about his craziness (if this is the case). We can do something about his calculation of costs/benefits if he is rational.

This means: we have to provide the Kremlin with off-ramps at every suitable opportunity. You don't like the sanctions? Some of these could be lifted if you pull out of Ukraine. We are ready to talk if you de-escalate. What about strategic stability talks, or new INF talks? Etc.

Just remember: a wild animal is always at its most dangerous when it's cornered. This has to be played smartly: without the unnecessary hubris, with firmness but with full understanding that the risks of miscalculation are extremely high - for both sides.