There are two ways to think about just war. The first criterion is jus ad bellum, the right to war. Russia failed by a wide margin. Its security concerns, such as there were, its made-up claims of a "genocide" - all did not add up to nearly enough to justify an attack on Ukraine.
The second criterion is called jus in bello - justice in war. This is an undertaking to use proportional force and to minimise civilian casualties. Russia's attack on Kharkiv today shows a blatant disregard for this principle.
This leads to the inevitable conclusion that Russia's war in Ukraine is an unjust war, unjustly waged.
Footnote: Anyone interested in the legal / ethical aspects of this issue, the place to start is Michael Walzer's classic Just and Unjust Wars. amazon.com/Just-Unjust-Wa….
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A week has now passed since Russia began its hideous war against Ukraine. Let's talk a little bit about where we are, how we got here, and what lessons might be drawn.
If you recall, in December 2021 Russia presented an ultimatum, which contained a number of demands, including one about NATO's further non-enlargement into the former Soviet space. We also saw Russia complain loudly about Kyiv's refusal to implement the Minsk Agreements.
It seems that the policy the US/NATO pursued was: to reject the core Russian demands as unacceptable while giving Putin some space for negotiation and a graceful exit. Unprecedented sanctions were promised as a "stick" in this strategy.
A few thoughts about a NATO no-fly zone over Ukraine.
No.
We have to be brutally frank about this. Russia is conducting a horrific war against Ukraine. An unjust war, unjustly waged. Innocent people are dying: it's tragic and heartbreaking. We must help Ukraine in every conceivable way... except for getting NATO directly involved.
Reasonable people understand this, and that's why reasonable people (including in the Biden Administration) said - before the war ever began - that NATO would *not* become involved. This may have well contributed to Putin's war calculus - he wasn't counting on NATO involvement.
Wang Wenbin appears a little less dazed in this press conference, and it does seem that China has finally formulated a position on Russia's war in Ukraine. fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/xwfw_6…. The position is benevolent neutrality, as I would have expected.
The benevolence is mainly rhetorical, at least for now: China "understands" Russia's "legitimate" security concerns and opposes sanctions on Russia.
At the same time, Beijing restates its support for the principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity, one of Wang Yi's "five points" on Ukraine. The repeated promise to look at the Ukraine issue "on its own merits" (按照事情本身) limits the applicability of this principle.
A great panel on Russia/Ukraine with my SAIS colleagues today. Let me pick up a thread that was touched upon but that requires further elaboration. Let's formulate it this way: is Putin unhinged or is he a rational actor?
I'd argue that seeing Putin as unhinged is unhelpful as a matter of policy choice. Doing so entails a logical fallacy. If we say that Putin is unhinged / determined to grab Ukraine no matter what, what we really say is that he is willing to fight a nuclear war to achieve his aim.
But if so, putting up resistance to his aggression in Ukraine makes no logical sense because Putin will unleash a nuclear war before he retreats in Ukraine, and, as a result, we'll have no winners, only losers. Hell, we'll all end up dead.
This war is obviously not going well for Putin. Consider Czechoslovakia in 1968: the invasion was largely unopposed, the Czechoslovak leader was arrested on the second day, flown to Moscow. The West just swallowed it. What we have today in Ukraine is playing out very differently.
The possibility of escalation and carnage remains. I would not rush to write Russia off as a paper tiger at this point. The situation is dangerous precisely because the war is not going well. Which brings us to the question of rationality.
Is Putin unhinged or has he miscalculated? In my recent piece for the War on the Rocks I talked about brinksmanship as a foreign policy strategy, and how war can happen (and has happened) as a result of miscalculation. warontherocks.com/2022/02/moscow….
We have overestimated Putin’s rationality in a sense. But here’s another consideration. Putin is acting the way he is because we have long resigned to Ukraine being in the Russian sphere. Why, the US/NATO have repeatedly stated they would not defend Ukraine. Art 5 doesn’t apply.
So Putin is acting like Khrushchev did in 1956 or like Brezhnev in 1968 when they invaded Hungary and Czechoslovakia respectively. They did because they knew there would not be much of a Western response. And there’s wasn’t one.
In this sense at least, Putin is reasserting the Brezhnev doctrine: no country ‘deemed’ to be in the Russian sphere should be allowed to leave it.