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Rob Lee Profile picture
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Feb 28 • 11 tweets • 3 min read
It looks as though the Russian military is starting to commit its other military capabilities after a questionable start. The video shows a Su-34 bomber reportedly flying over Kharkiv.
t.me/vorposte/14375
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There are multiple videos on Telegram that appear to show wounded or dead civilians in Kharkiv after MLRS fire today. 10/
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Rob Lee Profile picture
Mar 1
Looking back at this tweet, the best explanation is that many of these soldiers, including their officers, were not aware that an invasion was imminent, which would explain their behavior and the poor operational security.
There is this bizarre disconnect where the threat of a Russian invasion was very clear from the outside, but, apparently for OPSEC reasons, much of the military was not informed, which limited their ability to plan, prepare, and coordinate for this complex operation. 2/
As an example, I heard an anecdote that the soldiers deployed to Belarus had return tickets and were under the impression that they would leave once the exercise was over. That clearly wasn't the plan, but Russia's senior leadership kept their soldiers under that impression. 3/
Read 4 tweets
Rob Lee Profile picture
Mar 1
There was reportedly an explosion at Russia’s Taganrog Airbase in Rostov, possibly from a Ukrainian Tochka-U tactical ballistic missile. An Il-76 transport aircraft appears to be on fire.
t.me/milinfolive/77…
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Photo of the fire at the Taganrog airfield. 3/
t.me/bazabazon/10140 Image
Read 5 tweets
Rob Lee Profile picture
Mar 1
Russian strike on Kherson.
t.me/insiderUKR/228…
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Read 7 tweets
Rob Lee Profile picture
Mar 1
Video apparently showing a Russian helicopter being shot down, possibly over the Kyiv Reservoir. The video claims two but I only saw one helicopter going into the water.
t.me/insiderUKR/228…
This was likely from the first day of the war. 2/
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Read 4 tweets
Rob Lee Profile picture
Mar 1
Terrible footage from Kharkiv of what appears to be an MLRS rocket strike in the center of the city.
t.me/bazabazon/10115
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Read 4 tweets
Rob Lee Profile picture
Feb 28
Obviously, we can only make tentative conclusions so far, but the Russian military is committing some very basic mistakes from the strategic to tactical levels. Putin also put his military into a very bad situation with unrealistic goals and without giving them much warning.
It is clear many soldiers don't know what the goal of this war is, so they don't know how to respond to civilians or what sort of security posture they should take. They have been assigned tasks but don't understand the purpose, which is how you set up a military for failure. 2/
I have a feeling that Putin only told very senior officers about the invasion plan, so I would bet many of the division and army staffs didn't have time to plan things or conduct proper coordination. Of course, if you know you're going to war, you'll prepare better. 3/
Read 4 tweets

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