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Rob Lee Profile picture
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Mar 1 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Terrible footage from Kharkiv of what appears to be an MLRS rocket strike in the center of the city.
t.me/bazabazon/10115
2/
3/
It looks like a Smerch or Uragan MLRS rocket. Smerch is probably more likely given the number of Smerch rocket engines that have landed in Kharkiv in recent days. 4/

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Rob Lee Profile picture
Mar 2
At this point, the costs of the invasion are locked in for Russia. Even if Moscow finds some sort of compromise, government sanctions will remain as will the blacklisting from private corporations. This likely affects Russia's cost-benefit analysis of continuing the war.
Thus far, Russia hasn't achieved any significant political goals but has sustained most of the costs, so it has an incentive to continue the conflict. I think the real risk will be from growing domestic disapproval as the war continues, especially if Russia levels Kyiv. 2/
I don't think the domestic disapproval threat is that high yet, but it will likely grow as the way of life for most Russians is disrupted. Putin's decision to not mobilize the population for this conflict will also likely become a problem as it drags on.3/
Read 4 tweets
Rob Lee Profile picture
Mar 2
Russian troops patrolling through Balakliya, Kharkiv Oblast.
t.me/istorijaoruzij…
Russian troops in Balakliya. 2/
t.me/istorijaoruzij…
Russian troops in Balakliya. 3/
t.me/istorijaoruzij…
Read 5 tweets
Rob Lee Profile picture
Mar 1
Looking back at this tweet, the best explanation is that many of these soldiers, including their officers, were not aware that an invasion was imminent, which would explain their behavior and the poor operational security.
There is this bizarre disconnect where the threat of a Russian invasion was very clear from the outside, but, apparently for OPSEC reasons, much of the military was not informed, which limited their ability to plan, prepare, and coordinate for this complex operation. 2/
As an example, I heard an anecdote that the soldiers deployed to Belarus had return tickets and were under the impression that they would leave once the exercise was over. That clearly wasn't the plan, but Russia's senior leadership kept their soldiers under that impression. 3/
Read 4 tweets
Rob Lee Profile picture
Mar 1
There was reportedly an explosion at Russia’s Taganrog Airbase in Rostov, possibly from a Ukrainian Tochka-U tactical ballistic missile. An Il-76 transport aircraft appears to be on fire.
t.me/milinfolive/77…
2/
Photo of the fire at the Taganrog airfield. 3/
t.me/bazabazon/10140 Image
Read 5 tweets
Rob Lee Profile picture
Mar 1
Russian strike on Kherson.
t.me/insiderUKR/228…
2/
3/
Read 11 tweets
Rob Lee Profile picture
Mar 1
Video apparently showing a Russian helicopter being shot down, possibly over the Kyiv Reservoir. The video claims two but I only saw one helicopter going into the water.
t.me/insiderUKR/228…
This was likely from the first day of the war. 2/
3/
Read 4 tweets

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