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More from @RALee85

Rob Lee

@RALee85

Mar 2

https://twitter.com/ABarbashin/status/1499102820011843587

At this point, the costs of the invasion are locked in for Russia. Even if Moscow finds some sort of compromise, government sanctions will remain as will the blacklisting from private corporations. This likely affects Russia's cost-benefit analysis of continuing the war.

https://twitter.com/ABarbashin/status/1499102820011843587

Thus far, Russia hasn't achieved any significant political goals but has sustained most of the costs, so it has an incentive to continue the conflict. I think the real risk will be from growing domestic disapproval as the war continues, especially if Russia levels Kyiv. 2/

https://twitter.com/janedvidek/status/1498723248183382020

I don't think the domestic disapproval threat is that high yet, but it will likely grow as the way of life for most Russians is disrupted. Putin's decision to not mobilize the population for this conflict will also likely become a problem as it drags on.3/

https://twitter.com/janedvidek/status/1498723248183382020

Read 4 tweets

Rob Lee

@RALee85

Mar 2

Russian troops patrolling through Balakliya, Kharkiv Oblast.
t.me/istorijaoruzij…

Russian troops in Balakliya. 2/
t.me/istorijaoruzij…

Russian troops in Balakliya. 3/
t.me/istorijaoruzij…

Read 5 tweets

Rob Lee

@RALee85

Mar 1

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1493150061714366465

Looking back at this tweet, the best explanation is that many of these soldiers, including their officers, were not aware that an invasion was imminent, which would explain their behavior and the poor operational security.

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1493150061714366465

There is this bizarre disconnect where the threat of a Russian invasion was very clear from the outside, but, apparently for OPSEC reasons, much of the military was not informed, which limited their ability to plan, prepare, and coordinate for this complex operation. 2/

As an example, I heard an anecdote that the soldiers deployed to Belarus had return tickets and were under the impression that they would leave once the exercise was over. That clearly wasn't the plan, but Russia's senior leadership kept their soldiers under that impression. 3/

Read 4 tweets

Rob Lee

@RALee85

Mar 1

Russian strike on Kherson.
t.me/insiderUKR/228…

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1498594980453130242

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1498594980453130242

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1498597357360930817

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1498597357360930817

Read 11 tweets

Rob Lee

@RALee85

Mar 1

Video apparently showing a Russian helicopter being shot down, possibly over the Kyiv Reservoir. The video claims two but I only saw one helicopter going into the water.
t.me/insiderUKR/228…