A new IPCC #climate science report is out today, covering impacts and adaptation. What are the implications for #security in the evolving strategic environment? 🧵
The gravity of the #WGII report may get lost in the crisis of the past week, but it makes clear that the old stability is gone in more ways than one. 2/
Climate is changing the domain. Impacts on their own alone won't cause conflicts, but climate & the energy transition may not be far below the surface of how they play out (see countering a petrostate). 3/
The report details how slim the margin of error is in implementing effective climate policy - we are fast approaching thresholds & tipping points in the climate system that bring systemic and cascading risks. These could have a profound effect on the security environment. 4/
As ever, the #IPCC emphasises the scale and pace of change needed to minimise dangerous& pervasive impacts.
#AR6 also states plainly that there are limits to adaptation, and that changes to avoid reaching them need to be preventive and implemented years if not decades in advance
Europe & allies are perhaps recognising more clearly than ever the strategic benefits of decarbonising economies. Energy policy is security policy. 6/
This will have implications that play out over long term strategic planning horizons. Decarbonisation will be on the agenda of militaries around the world, and not just for climate mitigation reasons. 7/
Will closer defense cooperation at a time of committing to reducing reliance on a petrostate accelerate greening of NATO/European militaries? It's a little early yet for these signals. 8/
Countries like Germany that have committed to increasing defence spending will likely be guided by the EU Climate and Defence Roadmap, and NATO’s efforts around climate resilience and the defense energy transition. 9/
Clearly, conventional capabilities still matter. Green technology to move anything heavy in theatre is not there yet.
But more unified preparation for a less certain security future may - and should - prioritise needed R&D to support defence energy transition. 10/
The IPCC report provides very sound intelligence that we are in for a bumpy ride on climate. 11/
For the sake of of facing the future and recognizing not only that major change needs to happen, but also that hard decisions can be taken quickly in a crisis with enough political will, this moment of upheaval may offer some space for hope on this point, amidst the tragedy. 12/
See recent work on these themes with @IISS_org Ben Barry and @caro_emmett

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