Whoopsie

“Speaking to Kadyrov the Rosgvardia deputy describes how when he told his officers “many commanders listened to it with their eyes bulging, barely restrained their emotions”. He also warns many officers worry some of their soldiers will refuse orders in ukraine.”
Hence Western intel had such detailed insights into Russian invasion plans with Kadyrov's commanders updating Kadyrov about war preparations via voice notes.

Maybe that explains the Vindman Kadyrov video that seemed a bit weird given Chechen troops were busy invading Ukraine.
Can anyone translate this article? Seems important @BBCWorld @KyivIndependent

bbc.com/russian/featur…
H/T @CoppetainPU for this link to an English translation.

www-bbc-com.translate.goog/russian/featur…
That’s odd. My link doesn’t work even though I piggy backed off Peter’s.

Here’s his tweet. Use his link!
I shall provide screenshots as the translation seems to come and go.

It seems that the Chechen troops were kept in the dark about the invasion plans until very late in the day Image
Ha! Video address to troops:

“Taking this opportunity, I want to give advice to the current president Zelensky. Until he becomes the ex-president of Ukraine, so that he quickly calls our president, Supreme Commander Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin, and asks for an apology,"
I suspect Putin is in for long wait for a Selensky apology unless there is a gun to his head.

Exchanges recorded between “Martynov” and Kadyrov (Head of the Chechen State) Image
An example of the exchange here. “Everything will be fine” says Kadyrov with a yawn.

Martynov likely Colonel Danil Martynov, Deputy Head of the Chechen National Guard.

Both were already subject to US sanctions. Image
Voice samples have been compared and verified. Image
From these messages it seems likely that the preparations have, in fact, been going on for some time, confirming US intelligence. Image
Image
They suggest all actions by Chechen troops are 100% approved and supported by the leadership. Discusses which buildings they would enter and which to control.

They planned to take “clean” Ukraine SIM cards with them and “special satellite modems”. Image
It looks as if it was only a week before the invasion that plans were shared with Commanders…who showed visible signs of concern and feared there would be “refuseniks”

They knew it was wrong and went ahead. Image
The movement started. Image
I wonder what “construction” was undertaken?

On February 24th the Russian operation was launched.

Was it really only 4-5 days ago? Image

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More from @fascinatorfun

Mar 2
A Few Members of Russia's Parliament Speak Out Against War - The New York Times

They say they were told that troops were going in as peacekeepers in Luhansk and Donetsk …not that it would be a full scale invasion. That’s what they voted on.

nytimes.com/2022/02/28/wor…
Three members of Russia’s rubber-stamp Parliament have criticized their country’s war in Ukraine, a rare episode of dissent from within the Russian establishment.
“All three members belong to Russia’s Communist Party, which is nominally part of the opposition to the governing United Russia party but typically remains loyal to President Vladimir V. Putin on key issues.” Image
Read 7 tweets
Mar 1
The Russian soldiers “believed they were the good guys, coming to liberate oppressed Ukrainians from their Nazi overlords. They believed the Kremlin, which said they'd be welcomed, thanked.

Instead, they are being berated as "оккупанты" - occupiers…by people who speak Russian…
Look like Russians. Shops that look familiar to Russians. They may have holidayed in Odessa & swum in the Black Sea.

Soldiers who may have family & friends in Ukraine.

Yet they are being told “Go Home. What are you doing here?”

And they are supposed to kill them? Image
It wasn’t supposed to be like this.

What does that do to morale?

And what messages will they be sending home….

When they can.
Read 6 tweets
Mar 1
“The past has invaded the present. Russia’s military aggression has burst over Ukraine like a storm cloud gathered from a different, darker time. It is raining terror and destruction on a country that has seen tank columns like the one Vladimir Putin has ordered to Kyiv before…”
“.. but not in the last seven decades.
The Kremlin claims to be landing surgical strikes. The reality for civilians on the ground is butchery. Until this happened, the western imagination struggled to process the idea that Putin would go through with it.”
“His cynical disregard for human life was never doubted, but his callousness was thought to include rational self-interest.”

One helluva article from @rafaelbehr
Read 8 tweets
Mar 1
U.S., other world powers to tap strategic oil reserves in bid to ease gasoline prices - The Washington Post

Whilst sanctions bite, the price of Brent Crude has been rising …and that in turn helps to fund Russia’s war.

A dilemma brewing fast. washingtonpost.com/climate-enviro…
To try and stabilise prices the USA has agreed to release 60 mill barrels of oil from their reserves.

Oil prices have already risen to $100 dollars a barrel and could hit $130 a barrel. Image
It’s the 4th time since 1974 that the USA has taken this step. Image
Read 5 tweets
Mar 1
How much are these to buy? Anyone know?.

Responses suggest the Russia Army has about 100.

It looks as if Serbia bought 6 a couple of years ago.

(Link tweet two) for details.
Several responses put the value for export at around US$13-15million.

H/t @antartica81 for the most specific response.

“$13.15 million–$14.67 million a unit for export. Which likely mean about a third of that for domestic use.”

That’s still a VERY expensive fire.
Read 6 tweets
Mar 1
Swift: ejecting Russia is largely symbolic – here's why

“Yes, Swift messaging systems are a critical part of international economic activity”…
theconversation.com/swift-ejecting…
“They provide extremely secure communications, developed over five decades, dovetailing with the many and varied operations of commercial banks in international transactions. Swift systems would also be a prime target in any cyberwarfare, though thankfully they are well defended”
“The reality, however, is that limiting access to Swift is less practically effective than most media coverage supposes. It is an important symbol of global repudiation of Russia’s exercise of military force, but not much more.”
Read 7 tweets

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