Thread by @samagreene

So, as always, mixed signals, with basically two avenues of interpretation: either things are about to get better, or they're about to get a lot worse.

https://twitter.com/samagreene/status/1498343246942007301

Here's what we know. The Russians and Ukrainians met, talked at some length, released very similar statements confirming that talks would continue, and returned to Moscow and Kyiv for consultations.

unian.ua/politics/u-zel…

But that's only half the story. The other half is that Kharkiv came in for the most brutal air and artillery assault of the war to date (as best I can tell), attacks on Kyiv renewed, and Russia continued to mass troops and equipment outside the capital.

Kharkiv

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1498272708559351814

Kyiv

https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1498342702739509257

Meanwhile, per @meduzaproject, the Russian MoD is beginning to report more about the results of the war-they-won't-call-a-war, including a detailed (and unverifiable) accounting of the military losses they've inflicted.

Oh, and there's the sanctions front, on which topic this picture of CBR chief Nabiullina and chief economic adviser Oreshkin at a meeting with Putin today speaks volumes 👇

So, here's the version of the story that says things might be about to get better. Bear with me (and caveat that I'm not saying I'd buy what I'm about to sell).

The Russian side repeated its insistence today on 3 goals: demilitarization, 'de-nazification', and neutrality. We have all been interpreting that to mean regime change, and for good reason. But it may matter that the Kremlin itself hasn't talked about regime change.

Yes, many (most) of the Kremlin's acolytes have talked about regime change, but Putin has the rhetorical space to back away from that if he wants to.

Putin could claim victory on Russian TV based on a promise of neutrality, on the amount of Ukrainian military destroyed (confirmed or otherwise), and on the "arrests" of a few "nazis" who will be tried in Russia for things like the Odesa fire.

Please note that I'M NOT SAYING UKRAINE SHOULD PROMISE NEUTRALITY. And the arrest of Ukrainian citizens for trial in Russia would be a travesty and maybe a crime. I'm not justifying anything here -- just explaining a scenario.

In other words, Putin in his call with Macron and Medinsky (?!) in his talks with the Ukrainians left just enough space for a climb-down. That would leave questions about why they launched this war, and about credibility more broadly, but they may feel they can handle that.

HOWEVER, ever since this crisis began, the Kremlin has been maintaining just enough space for a climb-down, in order to force Western & Ukrainian policymakers to account for multiple possible scenarios. This looks and feels a lot like that, all over again.

All indications are that the sanctions have come harder and faster than Moscow believed, and Nabiullina, Siluanov and Oreshkin are clearly playing for time as they figure out how to stabilize things.

The economic bloc will likely have asked Putin for a bit of breathing space, and Putin may be calculating that the West might slow the pace of sanctions imposition if there's a prospect of talks yielding something.

If that's the case, then I despair for what comes next. As the military analysts have been saying for 36 hours now, Russia seems to be turning to the kinds of tactics we feared they would:

https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1498304259447828481

This war would then go from very bad to utterly cataclysmic.

This whole thread is much more speculative than I like to be, so let me clarify one thing in closing: I'm not predicting either of these scenarios. In fact, the likelihood is that neither of these things happens, because reality is much messier than I'm making it out to be.

Rather, hat I'm trying to do is to demonstrate that there are (at least) two plausible interpretations of events, and thus to remind us of two things: one, this is how strategic ambiguity feels; and two, it works both ways.

I don't know whether Putin knows what's going to happen next, but I'm willing to bet good money that Medinsky has no clue -- and neither do the brass, and especially not the soldiers in the field. As @RALee85 has written, that may be one reason this invasion hasn't gone to plan.

So that's the takeaway: Whatever I think, whatever you think, whatever Putin thinks, the future isn't written yet.

Correction: Definitely a crime.