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Charles Gaba 🇺🇦

Feb 28 • 10 tweets • 5 min read

📣📣 THREAD: Dems are facing strong headwinds in 2022, but DON'T accept defeat as inevitable.

In 2020 we saved democracy. In 2022 we need to do it again. Money isn't everything, but it's still an important tool.

Here's links to multiple fed/state races to support: 1/

1. First, we desperately need to keep the #HouseBlueIn22! I know it’s a long shot but if the GOP takes control you’ll have racist lunatics like MTG, Matt Gaetz & Lauren Boebert in charge.

This page includes races in Alabama - Michigan; donate today! secure.actblue.com/donate/housebl…

1a. This page includes races in Minnesota - Wyoming:
secure.actblue.com/donate/housebl…

2. It's vitally important to not only keep the #SenateBlueIn22 to retain control of judicial appointments, but to *pad* the majority to prevent a handful of wayward Dems from continuing to throw sand in the gears of the Democratic agenda. Donate today! secure.actblue.com/donate/senateb…

3. While control of the federal government is vital, the pandemic has also underscored how much power individual states have when it comes to public health policy and so much more. Help make #GovsBlueIn22 by donating to these races today! secure.actblue.com/donate/govblue…

4. Secretary of State has always been an important job, but the GOP's endless attempts to overturn the 2020 election and *especially* their aggressive moves to nullify U.S. democracy NOW add a new urgency to making sure it's #SOSBlueIn22. Donate today! secure.actblue.com/donate/sosblue…

5. Besides helping decide whether democracy is saved, if the Supreme Court strikes down or guts Roe vs. Wade as expected, AGs across the country will play a critical role in the fate of women who choose to control their own bodies. Donate today: secure.actblue.com/donate/agsblue…

⚠️ 6. REMEMBER: It's STATE LEGISLATURES which have the most control over the fate of U.S. democracy. We MUST flip control of as many state Senates / Houses as possible...& in MICHIGAN, we have a shot at both! Donate today to make #MIBlueIn22! secure.actblue.com/donate/bluemi2…

Stay tuned for more state legislature pages to come and for more Dem races to be filled in with specific candidates/nominees.

The stakes are even higher than they were last year. In 2020 it was Trump himself. In 2022, Trumpism has metastasized across virtually the *ENTIRE* GOP.

@runforsomething

P.S. I'll also be working great organizing/training groups like @runforsomething, @fairfightaction, @DemocracyDocket and so forth onto some of these pages or others in the near future. Stay tuned!

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Charles Gaba 🇺🇦

@charles_gaba

Mar 2

Take your best guess.

OK, it's spot updates of my estimates for the likely net difference between Trump & Biden voters who've died of COVID in each state since the 2020 election: acasignups.net/22/02/03/chall…

Here's my high-end estimate for the net difference a month ago & today:

AZ: 3,400 > 3,600
CO: 900 > 1,000
FL: 10,700 > 11,200
GA: 4,500 > 4,800
IA: 2,000 > 2,100
MI: 3,000 > 3,200
NH: 190 > 200
NC: 4,500 > 4,900
OH: 7,800 > 8,500
PA: 6,500 > 7,000
WI: 2,200 > 2,400

Read 6 tweets

Charles Gaba 🇺🇦

@charles_gaba

Feb 21

📣⚠️ NEW: As I've been expecting for over a month and as I hinted at last week, the Red/Blue COVID death rate divide, which had been significantly reduced during the #Omicron wave, has started moving back up again:
acasignups.net/22/02/21/weekl…

There was one point in late September when the daily COVID death rate in the reddest decile of the U.S. was running nearly NINE TIMES HIGHER than in the bluest decile.

The gap between the extremes shrank down to almost nothing by late January...but is moving back up again now.

No idea how long this upswing will last & I doubt it will ever reach the extremes of the Delta wave...but the reason is pretty clear: Omicron, like prior variants, hit the most densely populated urban (blue) areas hard first, but is now spreading out into the rural (red) areas.

Read 4 tweets

Charles Gaba 🇺🇦

@charles_gaba

Feb 21

📣 WEEKLY UPDATE: County-level COVID vaccination rates by 2020 partisan lean:
acasignups.net/22/02/21/weekl…

⚠️ AMERICA IN ONE IMAGE, updated thru today:

--There's now 13 U.S. counties w/694K residents where over 90% of their total populations have received their 2nd shot.

--There's 50 counties w/16.5M residents where over 80% have gotten a 2nd shot.

--There's 204 counties w/79.5M residents where over 70% have gotten a 2nd shot.

Read 6 tweets

Charles Gaba 🇺🇦

@charles_gaba

Feb 20

https://twitter.com/YossiGestetner/status/1495256587744821254

Well, for starters, this is comparing the entire state of Florida (including the vast rural counties) against the CITY of New York (one of the most densely-populated areas of the country).

https://twitter.com/YossiGestetner/status/1495256587744821254

At a MINIMUM you’d have to compare the STATE of NY (roughly 20M) vs the STATE of Florida. Also, I don’t think he wants me to compare the states from last September, for instance.

Here's NYC *plus* the rest of NY STATE (they're listed separately).

Jan 2021: 6,293 deaths
Jan 2022: 5,506 deaths
= 12.5% *fewer* deaths statewide in NY in Jan 2022 vs. Jan 2021.

A smaller drop than FL's 33.5% drop, sure...but a hell of a lot different from a 32% *increase*.

Read 8 tweets

Charles Gaba 🇺🇦

@charles_gaba

Feb 19

Been feeling kind of crappy the past few days so I decided to go ahead and use one of the 4 at-home COVID tests we received via USPS. My wife, kid & I are all vaxxed/boosted but you never know these days...

Will have the results in another 8 minutes or so.

Re. the test itself, for those who haven't used an at-home one yet: It's not too bad/complicated, but the nasal swab part is much worse than a PCR test--instead of 1 nostril for 5 seconds, you have to swab *both* nostrils for *15* seconds each.

Much sneezing resulted.

Annnnd…it’s negative.
Which means either a) I don’t have COVID, b) I did something wrong, or c) it’s a false negative.

Read 5 tweets

Charles Gaba 🇺🇦

@charles_gaba

Feb 8

📣 (warning: long thread w/50+ graphics)

It's been another 3 months, so I figured it's a good time to again break out COVID county-level, 2-dose, total population vaccination rates for all 50 states.

Again, I use CDC data for most states, w/state health dept. data for a few. 1/

ALABAMA: Fairly weak partisan correlation, mainly because the vaccination rate sucks pretty much EVERYWHERE. It does form an odd snake shape, though.

The graph on the right (w/out background graphics/etc) includes children 5-11 only.

ALASKA: AK has always been all over the place on COVID vaccination rates. Bristol Bay has supposedly vaxxed *over* 100% of its population which is impossible; this is caused by a variety of factors including error margin etc. I've set a max cap of 98% for any county's vaxx rate.

Read 51 tweets

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