Take your best guess.
OK, it's spot updates of my estimates for the likely net difference between Trump & Biden voters who've died of COVID in each state since the 2020 election: acasignups.net/22/02/03/chall…
Here's my high-end estimate for the net difference a month ago & today:

AZ: 3,400 > 3,600
CO: 900 > 1,000
FL: 10,700 > 11,200
GA: 4,500 > 4,800
IA: 2,000 > 2,100
MI: 3,000 > 3,200
NH: 190 > 200
NC: 4,500 > 4,900
OH: 7,800 > 8,500
PA: 6,500 > 7,000
WI: 2,200 > 2,400
Unfortunately, as rough as these estimates may be, it'd be infinitely more work for me to run similar estimates at the Congressional district level because most maps split counties into multiple districts.
Iowa's districts run along county lines, so I've been able to run an estimate for IA-03 (Cindy Axne's district): Somewhere between 120 - 400 more Trump voters than Biden voters have likely died of COVID-19 since the 2020 election there.
If anyone knows whether any of these districts (besides IA-03) run include *full counties only*, let me know. If they split counties that's not useful to me for this purpose.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Charles Gaba 🇺🇦

Charles Gaba 🇺🇦 Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @charles_gaba

Feb 28
📣📣 THREAD: Dems are facing strong headwinds in 2022, but DON'T accept defeat as inevitable.

In 2020 we saved democracy. In 2022 we need to do it again. Money isn't everything, but it's still an important tool.

Here's links to multiple fed/state races to support: 1/
1. First, we desperately need to keep the #HouseBlueIn22! I know it’s a long shot but if the GOP takes control you’ll have racist lunatics like MTG, Matt Gaetz & Lauren Boebert in charge.

This page includes races in Alabama - Michigan; donate today! secure.actblue.com/donate/housebl…
1a. This page includes races in Minnesota - Wyoming:
secure.actblue.com/donate/housebl…
Read 10 tweets
Feb 21
📣⚠️ NEW: As I've been expecting for over a month and as I hinted at last week, the Red/Blue COVID death rate divide, which had been significantly reduced during the #Omicron wave, has started moving back up again:
acasignups.net/22/02/21/weekl…
There was one point in late September when the daily COVID death rate in the reddest decile of the U.S. was running nearly NINE TIMES HIGHER than in the bluest decile.

The gap between the extremes shrank down to almost nothing by late January...but is moving back up again now.
No idea how long this upswing will last & I doubt it will ever reach the extremes of the Delta wave...but the reason is pretty clear: Omicron, like prior variants, hit the most densely populated urban (blue) areas hard first, but is now spreading out into the rural (red) areas.
Read 4 tweets
Feb 21
📣 WEEKLY UPDATE: County-level COVID vaccination rates by 2020 partisan lean:
acasignups.net/22/02/21/weekl…
⚠️ AMERICA IN ONE IMAGE, updated thru today:
--There's now 13 U.S. counties w/694K residents where over 90% of their total populations have received their 2nd shot.

--There's 50 counties w/16.5M residents where over 80% have gotten a 2nd shot.

--There's 204 counties w/79.5M residents where over 70% have gotten a 2nd shot.
Read 6 tweets
Feb 20
Well, for starters, this is comparing the entire state of Florida (including the vast rural counties) against the CITY of New York (one of the most densely-populated areas of the country).
At a MINIMUM you’d have to compare the STATE of NY (roughly 20M) vs the STATE of Florida. Also, I don’t think he wants me to compare the states from last September, for instance.
Here's NYC *plus* the rest of NY STATE (they're listed separately).

Jan 2021: 6,293 deaths
Jan 2022: 5,506 deaths
= 12.5% *fewer* deaths statewide in NY in Jan 2022 vs. Jan 2021.

A smaller drop than FL's 33.5% drop, sure...but a hell of a lot different from a 32% *increase*.
Read 8 tweets
Feb 19
Been feeling kind of crappy the past few days so I decided to go ahead and use one of the 4 at-home COVID tests we received via USPS. My wife, kid & I are all vaxxed/boosted but you never know these days...

Will have the results in another 8 minutes or so.
Re. the test itself, for those who haven't used an at-home one yet: It's not too bad/complicated, but the nasal swab part is much worse than a PCR test--instead of 1 nostril for 5 seconds, you have to swab *both* nostrils for *15* seconds each.

Much sneezing resulted.
Annnnd…it’s negative.
Which means either a) I don’t have COVID, b) I did something wrong, or c) it’s a false negative. Image
Read 5 tweets
Feb 8
📣 (warning: long thread w/50+ graphics)

It's been another 3 months, so I figured it's a good time to again break out COVID county-level, 2-dose, total population vaccination rates for all 50 states.

Again, I use CDC data for most states, w/state health dept. data for a few. 1/
ALABAMA: Fairly weak partisan correlation, mainly because the vaccination rate sucks pretty much EVERYWHERE. It does form an odd snake shape, though.

The graph on the right (w/out background graphics/etc) includes children 5-11 only.
ALASKA: AK has always been all over the place on COVID vaccination rates. Bristol Bay has supposedly vaxxed *over* 100% of its population which is impossible; this is caused by a variety of factors including error margin etc. I've set a max cap of 98% for any county's vaxx rate.
Read 51 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(