One of the most interesting tweets of the last day, part of a thread by a US Senator after a confidential briefing on the situation in Ukraine. If accurate, this information shows the disaster Russia has gotten itself into.
https://twitter.com/ChrisMurphyCT/status/1498477869022035972
First, the assumption is that it will take 'weeks' to surround Kyiv and cut it off. If thats right, thats two more weeks for the sanctions to start grinding down the Russian economy and for Ukrainian armed forces to be reinforced and attrit the Russian invasion column.
Second, then spending weeks surrounding Kyiv (and btw, we need to be very careful about using such words, we dont know how effective the Russian military has been in Ukraine operating off the roads), the expectation is for 'street to street' combat in a city of 3 million people
Moreover, street to street fighting after the Ukrainians have had weeks to prepare and reinforce defenses. Can Russia take and level Kyiv, probably, but the cost could be immense--'long and bloody'.
And if this analysis is right. this protracted campaign of surrounding Kyiv and long and bloody combat will take place while the Russian economy contracts.
And then what? The Russians level Kyiv, kills masses of people, have their military degraded, and are running of out money. What's their strategy? Permanent occupation and war--considering most of Ukraine isnt under their control and the Ukrainians have become their mortal enemy?
if @ChrisMurphyCT is accurately describing the Russian plan for Kyiv, it looks to be a catastrophe--for Russia as well as Ukraine.
If this U.K. MOD summary is right the forecast of the Russians needing ‘weeks’ to encircle Kyiv looks very plausible
https://twitter.com/defencehq/status/1498551511445553158
US/U.K. intelligence, which has been very accurate so far is presenting a consistent picture of an frustrated and bitter dictator, in charge of a misfiring military campaign who looks increasingly likely to favour extreme violence. nbcnews.com/investigations…
Looks like we might end up with the large encirclement and street by street fighting. What a catastrophe this would be
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