I was wondering when these arguments were going to be made, and they are actually interesting. So much of Putin's (and other people's views) of Russian military capabilities have come out of the supposed dominant role played by the USSR in defeating Nazi Germany
There has even been talk of a law to ban the downgrading of Soviet contribution to victory in the war. This view of Soviet military prowess existed through the Cold War.
One of the key elements of the revisionist critique of the Cold War was that because the USSR did the most to defeat Nazi Germany, Stalin was basically owed a buffer zone in eastern Europe.
I would also argue that alot of the stories (which now look like scare stories) of powerful Soviet armed forces with their masses of tanks emerged directly from this WWII perception--even when it was shown that the USSR was actually far weaker than we assumed.
Something like this seems to be happening before our eyes--with many analysts and Putin himself absolutely convinced that Russian armed forces were more capable than they SEEM to be so far.
People might guess where Im going with this because of my research. I think a close analysis of how the war was won or lost actually shows that the USSR played a much smaller role in Nazi Germany's defeat and the Soviet armed forces were not as effective as portrayed.
Basically the Germans actually sent a relatively small percentage of their production to the Eastern Front, with a far larger percentage destroyed by the Anglo-Americans in the air and on the sea. The Germans generally had less than a third of their production deployed East
This does not even count the large transfer of resources to Stalin through lend-lease, which this first tweet mentions. Indeed, had Germany fought the USSR alone, it would have conquered Russia.
We might be seeing in front of our eyes the effect of a failed historical notion of how effective Soviet armed forces were in World War II--especially for Vladimir Putin.

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More from @PhillipsPOBrien

Mar 2
Been trying to get my head around what is happening in the Ukrainian War, as it represents something different than we have seen before. This is my first group of thoughts, so probably deeply flawed, but I think what we are seeing should be called: Semi-Symmetric Warfare.
It’s not a counter insurgency/insurgency war, though it is between what would be thought of as asymmetric forces. However what we seen to be seeing is an effort by the Ukrainians to erase the asymmetry. In many ways very successfully so far.
War has certainly become even more technological in the last century, and that has led to problems that the Russians are experiencing. The most advanced systems are actually very complex. Requiring great expertise, flexibility, advanced training and in some ways decentralisation
Read 12 tweets
Mar 1
One of the most interesting tweets of the last day, part of a thread by a US Senator after a confidential briefing on the situation in Ukraine. If accurate, this information shows the disaster Russia has gotten itself into.
First, the assumption is that it will take 'weeks' to surround Kyiv and cut it off. If thats right, thats two more weeks for the sanctions to start grinding down the Russian economy and for Ukrainian armed forces to be reinforced and attrit the Russian invasion column.
Second, then spending weeks surrounding Kyiv (and btw, we need to be very careful about using such words, we dont know how effective the Russian military has been in Ukraine operating off the roads), the expectation is for 'street to street' combat in a city of 3 million people
Read 10 tweets
Feb 28
At some point those who talk about a Russian strategy to win this war have to stand back and understand there is none, beyond the permanent occupation of Ukraine which is far beyond the economic capabilities of its crippled economy. Russia has lost the war.
The true impact of the power of Ukrainian resistance and the extraordinary reaction of NATO and EU give Russia no military option, except I suppose a full nuclear exchange.
For instance, there is all the talk of Russia recalibrating it’s disastrous strategy and going for a large slice of Eastern Ukraine and a land bridge to Crimea. Sounds really clever: unless you realise they can’t hold it for long as there economy tanks and the Ukrainians fight.
Read 11 tweets
Feb 27
Retweeting this because it provides the basic lens for understanding where we are and why we are getting the nuclear threats from Putin. It’s really all they have.
There has been a significant overestimation of Russian military capabilities for years, based partly on a think tank culture that seemed to be fascinated by Russia’s upgrading or different pieces of equipment. That plus Putin’s boasting created a dangerous situation…
Where both he and many outside spoke of the Russian Army as if it could easily crush Ukraine (and why many were arguing that Ukraine should be handed over). The problem is Putin believed his own propaganda: partly I imagine because he surrounded himself with yes men
Read 6 tweets
Feb 27
This move by a truly desperate man rather undermines the claims of those in the last few days that the war really wasn’t going badly for Russia. You don’t do this if you have a reasonable path to victory. It seems to be going as badly in reality as it seemed outwardly.
Waiting very much for the Chinese Government’s next statement
For what it’s worth, outwardly the White House does not seem too worried.
Read 7 tweets
Feb 27
A short tweet thread on the most interesting comparisons to Putin's strategic disaster in Ukraine. It has two parallels worth discussing. 1) Stalin's decision to attack Finland in 1939 and 2) Mussolini's decision to invade Greece in 1940.
Both have interesting parallels to what Putin has done. In both cases Stalin and Mussolini created echo chambers where their advisers told them only what they wanted to believe, and in each case it was that the Finns and Greeks would be a walkover.
Both Stalin and Mussolini were convinced they would overrun their targets in a few days, maybe two weeks. They talked themselves into believing that their enemies were divided and weak, and actually would almost welcome their conquerors.
Read 11 tweets

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