Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
Mar 1 4 tweets 1 min read
#Russia_War: The Russian aggression is now focused on encircling Mariupol (they want to finish on March 1). If this city port falls, then the Russian army can cut off the Ukrainian government from the Azov sea and create a land corridor from Donbas to the Crimean peninsula. As ⤵️
I previously remarked the Russian invasion has at least two goals: 1) to make Kyiv capitulate (and accept neutrality), and 2) while the attention of the Ukrainian forces is channelled on defending Kyiv and Kharkiv to occupy the southern regions. ⤵️
The second goal envisions to take control over the remaining territories in Donetsk, then extend to Zaporozhya and Kherson to reach Crimea. Earlier, I posted that some parts of Odessa are also under airstrikes. ⤵️
However, the Ukrainian resistance against the Russian invasion is strong and the sanctions start to have their effects!

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More from @DionisCenusa

Mar 2
#Russia_War: Let's take a closer look at the 35 countries that abstained from voting in favor of the UN resolution on the Russian invasion of Ukraine. I would like to highlight the following (alphabetically): 1) Armenia: Prime Minister Pashinyan relies heavily on Russian⤵️ Image
peacekeepers to preserve remaining parts of Nahogorno-Karabakh and ensure strategic balance in talks with Azerbaijan; 2) Central African Republic: Russian mercenaries have been instrumental in the fight against insurgents (to say the least); 3) China -⤵️
Beijing cannot vote on resolutions against Russia with which it is building a strategic partnership against the West, which will be essential for future attempts to take Taiwan by force; 4) Kazakhstan - President Tokayev did not support the aggression against Ukraine,⤵️
Read 5 tweets
Mar 1
#Ukraine: The European Parliament adopted a resolution (political document) that included among other aspects a reference to Ukraine's EU candidate status. Indeed, this is something more than just the EU perspective (that was previously demanded). However, after taking a ⤵️
closer look at the resolution, the text looks weaker than we expected. First, the EP uses a very general formulation. It "calls" on all EU institutions to "work to grant" Ukraine candidate status. No sense of urgency. Secondly, the EP does not specify the Council of the EU ⤵️
(national governments) that are crucial in the decision on this matter, as well as the European Commission. Third, the EP invokes the existing procedures (art. 49), without suggesting any new "fast track" procedures, as requested by Zelensky or suggested by Poland and Slovakia.⤵️
Read 8 tweets
Mar 1
#Russia_War: This is truly Orwellian. The Ministry of Defense of an invading/aggressor country has warned that the Russian army will launch an attack on the buildings where the State Security and the Center for Information and Psychological Operations of Ukraine (TsIPSO) are ⤵️
located. Therefore, Russia wants to annihilate the institutions from where the Ukrainian forces would carry out an information war against Russia. On any account, Ukraine is fighting against an aggressor. This is indicative of Russia's intentions to break the Ukrainian ⤵️
authorities' control over information inside Ukraine. With this attack, Russia intends to undermine the integrity of Ukraine's information space and replace it with its disinformation. It is clear that Russia wants to conquer the brains of the Ukrainians for as long as it ⤵️
Read 4 tweets
Mar 1
#Russia_Sanctions: The EU published the list of 26 oligarchs linked to Putin (10), officials/politicians (5), journalists (7) and military (4). Their assets are frozen and they are prohibited from traveling to the EU. These peoples are added to the 2014 list of individual⤵️
sanctions related to the territorial integrity, sovereignty and independence of Ukraine. Here are the names:

1.Igor SECHIN (CEO of Rosneft, Putin’s inner circle);
2.Nikolay TOKAREV (Transnefti, Putin’s circle);
3.Alisher USMANOV (pro-Putin oligarch, Metalloinvest);
⤵️
4.Petr AVEN (pro-Putin oligarch, Alfa Bank);
5.Mikhail FRIDMAN (pro-Putin oligarch, Alfa Bank);
6.Alexander PONOMARENK (pro-Putin oligarch, Alfa Bank);
7.Gennady TIMCHENKO (oligarch, Volga Group);
8.Alexey MORDASCHOV (oligarch, Severgroup);
⤵️
Read 7 tweets
Feb 22
My latest article: “Russian crisis 2.0: Ukraine's demands towards the West in the face of new scenarios in Moscow.” bit.ly/3s7tccE
The legislative bodies of the separatist territories approved the so-called "treaties of friendship" with Russia. The establishing of diplomatic relations is in full swing.
The largest group in the European Parliament, the EPP, demands sanctions on Russia, as well as "lock out Russia from the European economy."
Read 10 tweets
Feb 18
#Ukraine: The separatist territories announced the evacuation of the population of the localities from the contact. They claim that Zelensky would like to enter the territories. Such a scenario is completely rejected by Kyiv. Meanwhile, Putin is urging talks between⤵️
Kyiv and separatists (the Minsk Agreements). Women, children and the elderly will be transported to Russia, while the male population is expected to be conscripted. These are signs that Russia’s aggression has more ground to materialize. The provocation can start right in Donbas.
The Secretary of National Security and Defense, Danilov, declared that Russia tries to force the constitutional authorities to enter the separatist regions. Kyiv rules out any incursion. The Ukrainian side will apply military force only for self-defense.
Read 5 tweets

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