Thread by @jonsoltz

Another day, and Putin is no closer to achieving his strategic objectives 1) Limit western influence in Ukraine (NATO) 2) Install a puppet govt.

No matter what you see on TV Russia is losing this war.

Russia’s strategy has & will continue to backfire.

🧵

Let’s look at effects based doctrine to better understand. EBO was designed to understand the strategic objectives and develop operational and tactical objectives that support them.

🧵

Decimating Ukrainian cities creates “effects” that only undermines Russia’s objectives in Ukraine. If Putin does “double down” as you’re hearing on T.V. understand this operational approach only undermines Russia’s original strategic objectives

🧵

So the “convoy” OMG the convoy.

So maybe Kiev gets surrounded, maybe Kiev gets occupied.

Would you want to be in the Russian military occupying Kiev?

There might be dark days ahead but Russia will not be able to succeed in Ukraine.

🧵

The media narrative should be focused on how and why Putin will lose.

This obsession to talk up “Russian power” makes no sense.

I promise you the top of the Russian military and Putin don’t have the facts.

As long as Russia and Putin think they can win they will fight.

🧵

Putin doesn’t have the facts because subordinates are afraid to speak honestly.

The is known issue in authoritarian militaries.

We also have this issue in the west. How many Iraqi Army Soldiers were trained by our military?

We need to let Russians knows they can’t win.