Thread by @TFletcher

Putin’s military escalation is underway: he is once again doubling down on brutality and violence. Sadly we have seen this before, and need to learn the lessons of our failures to respond in Syria. 1/

https://twitter.com/bbcbreaking/status/1498702569367085066

1. Stop analysing him like great strategist, but opportunist thug. Not chess master but tipping over board. Hits when thinks opponents are weak/distracted. In Syria he established narrative that he was outthinking opponents. He wasn’t: he just cared less about killing people. 2/

2. Find ways to deny him his fix. He needs to show he sets agenda. But tectonic plates not moving in way he anticipated: German defence spending; European cohesion; NATO’s increased magnetism; public revulsion. We must double down on those and be less predictable. 3/

Don’t let him set public argument. It is strength that we debate policy. If Putin allowed it he might not have got himself into this mess. But this is not all because we failed to give him more resets. Problem with containment strategy was only that it didn’t contain enough. 4/

Don’t spend too much time on what Putin doesn’t fear. Yes, we need to keep working hard at UN, to show solidarity with Ukraine, and discourage future Putins. But he is benefiting from weakness of international system he vandalised. Let’s not pretend it’s a genuine deterrent. 5/

Don’t substitutute words for actions. Symbolism/hashtags are important solidarity for 🇺🇦, just as they were for Syrians. But they don’t deter Putin anymore than #SaveSyria saved Syria. We must not overpromise and under deliver:

theirworld.org/news/dear-syri… 6/

Instead, focus on what Putin fears: sense at home that Putin is not Russia; and Chinese shift of calculus. Keep showing the gamble was his alone, not in Russian interests. And frame discussion with China in terms of global stability, territorial integrity and post Putin world.

Be more systematic in removing dependences. Putin’s decision to invade was enabled by Russia’s dominant position in Europe’s energy market. We have two tough Winters ahead, at least. That is a price we must pay, and it must accelerate the shift to renewables. 8/

Document it all and keep reminding those pulling the trigger and giving the orders that they will be held accountable. 9/
 
theguardian.com/world/2022/feb…

Go far beyond normal limits of generosity and compassion to those injured, displaced and brutalized. 10/

Don’t overpromise diplomatic process when we know conditions aren’t yet right, or fall for wishful thinking that he might come to the table before he thinks he has won. Gives him too much cover from his international apologists. 11/

But don’t lose sight of what happens when guns stop. Like many disruptors, he can only destroy, not build. Ultimately, this ends in negotiation, with him (over frozen conflict) or his successor (over Russia’s legitimate place at the table). 12/

Renew democracy (1). As with Covid, there is cost to weak and/or distracted leadership. Democracies, with transparency, face tactical cost in old school statecraft vs Putin. We need fresh debate about hard power: he doesn’t believe we have political consent to ever use it. 13/

Renew democracy (2). Deny oxygen to pound shop Putins. Tough on Putinism, tough on causes of Putinism: nationalism, polarisation, institutional failure, distraction.  Long after he is gone, we will still need show that this kind of leadership belongs in dustbin of history. 14/

Renew international system. Uphold rules-based international order, consistently and unequivocally. 🇺🇦 , 🇸🇾 , 🇦🇫 are consequences of driverless world. Can’t neglect unexciting work of global governance that was not done after 2009 financial crisis. 15/

tortoisemedia.com/2021/10/29/how…

I know that none of this is any help right now to those under the bombs. But to support them we will need much greater resolve, stomach, patience, creativity and practical kindness.

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