Thread by @TFletcher

Sensing a brief hiatus between the EU election fallout and #CricketWorldCup2019. So slipping in my preview for @Independent of Trump state visit next week:

independent.co.uk/voices/trump-u…

These US/UK moments nerve shredding for many involved, even when PM not in process of quitting. UK media scavenge any hint of Presidential indifference (pool spray? CD set? Did he say 'special relationship'?) or chumminess (shared prayers/toothpaste?). Can't win. 2/

Visits less perilous when both sides see strong political incentive - upcoming election, hand of history (Good Friday Agreement), ambitious shared foreign policy initiative (G20, Libya) or common rival (Chirac, Saddam). And where there is visibly strong personal chemistry. 3/

Evidently therefore, next week’s visit will be challenging. Perhaps most challenging in memory. Many hoped it would not happen this Presidential term. After last week, many on both sides wondered whether to delay. But as things stand, circus comes to town next week. Gulp. 4/

Trump needs: 1) Association with UK royalty, despite necessary adjustments to usual protocol - no coveted gold carriage, parade etc. 2) To show his brand of politics is winning. Though no tweet yet, he's presumably gleeful at insurgent rejection of status quo in EU elections. 5/

Meanwhile, 🇬🇧 needs three different things ...

1. Show world - esp UK itself - there is life beyond Brexit, and we can still do competence, unity, dignity. When we take ourselves seriously, we can ask world to take our global aspirations seriously. Expect strong trade focus. 6/

2. Avoid further polarisation of UK political debate. Trump could throw extra grenade into circular firing squad. His language on race, gender, or Africa would get him fired from any UK cabinet. Hosts hoping he can keep it more Presidential. As for meeting with Mr Farage ... 7/

3. Head off more attacks on US-created, now US-orphaned, international system. Brexit or not, UK geopolitical strategy needs responsible US leadership, not pinball diplomacy. Expectations low: Trump sets out to prove his critics right. Maybe some warm words for NATO, please? 8/

Key must therefore be to put focus of week where it should be: D-Day commemorations. Trump will be just one among many leaders gathering to remember sacrifice of previous generation to protect us from tyranny, intolerance and extremism. 9/

We can take comfort that HMQ has it covered. Her 11th 🇺🇸 President. 🇬🇧 can show respect for office he holds, US people, shared values and history, and for special relationship durable enough to withstand bad times. Just without too much gold - he has enough of that at home. 10/10