Thread by @DrRadchenko

A week has now passed since Russia began its hideous war against Ukraine. Let's talk a little bit about where we are, how we got here, and what lessons might be drawn.

If you recall, in December 2021 Russia presented an ultimatum, which contained a number of demands, including one about NATO's further non-enlargement into the former Soviet space. We also saw Russia complain loudly about Kyiv's refusal to implement the Minsk Agreements.

It seems that the policy the US/NATO pursued was: to reject the core Russian demands as unacceptable while giving Putin some space for negotiation and a graceful exit. Unprecedented sanctions were promised as a "stick" in this strategy.

Some analysts (I am thinking of people like @scharap and even @LievenAnatol) were at the time suggesting that more should have been done on the Minsk front, in the way of perhaps prodding Ukraine towards some sort of a settlement.

But it's fair to say that the mainstream opinion was against such arm-twisting because it was regarded as another Munich. A month ago I was in Kyiv and encountered considerable defiance among government officials on the subject of negotiating with Russia.

There was also great confidence - delusion some might say - that there would be no war. In retrospect, it seems obvious we misread this situation.

I wonder if we should've done more on the diplomatic front, especially given that everyone understood then (as we understand now) that NATO should not get directly involved. It would be more honest not to lull the Ukrainians into a false sense of security by grandstanding.

In retrospect, seems some assurances to Russia about NATO's non-enlargement into Ukraine and implementation of the Minsk Agreements was a relatively low price to pay, compared to where we are now. (@LievenAnatol argued, I recall, that it was a way of testing Putin's intentions).

We are where we are, and the Ukrainians have shown their bravery beyond all measure. Ukraine is in a brutal, horrific war. Russia will pay dearly for this criminal misadventure. It faces just condemnation as an aggressor. There is no return to status quo ante.

What we need to think about now, though, is how to avoid this war from further escalating. It is true that much here depends on Putin and his henchmen - they are the aggressors. But here are a couple of observations from a Cold War historian. Take them or leave them.

During the Cold War, the main danger came not from policy makers purposefully deciding to use nuclear weapons. We tend to assume that policy makers are rational, and even Putin - for all his delusions - can be described as rational insofar that this war was a calculated risk.

The main danger came from *inadvertent escalation*. There were several moments when we could have fallen off the brink. Recall October 1962, and all the things that went wrong (the shooting down of a U2 over Cuba, the submarine standoff etc). All these could have ended badly.

We could have easily ended in a shooting war between Moscow and Washington, where the unplanned use of nuclear weapons was a distinct possibility. Look, I don't want to go over all the arguments here. Read @michaeldobbs's brilliant book One Minute to Midnight.

We had another situation in November 1983 around the Able Archer exercise, where the Soviets - though never intending to launch a nuclear strike against the US - could have concluded that the nuclear war had already begun and retaliated.

The fog of war is a thing. Inadvertent escalation is a thing. That's why in the midst of all tensions we must continue to stay calm. Even as we condemn Russia's brutalities and (rightly) apply strong sanctions, we should stay focused and not allow this war to widen.

That's why yesterday I criticised the no-fly zone idea. Not because establishing a no-fly zone immediately leads to a nuclear war. That's not how it works. But it would be a step-up on the ladder of escalation that will result in a direct hot war between Russia and the West.

I have doubts about how this will minimise civilian casualties. But I don't doubt that we would see the war become more intense, with more civilian casualties, and a potential for further escalation, leading all the way down to a nuclear war. This is to be avoided.

And, yes, let's continue talking about the diplomatic track. Not that anyone doubts that Putin is a hideous, brutal dictator who doesn't care for human life. We know him for the tyrant that he is. But this doesn't mean that we abandon all diplomacy.

If anything, the last couple of months are an important reminder that opportunities were possibly missed, and wrong signals were most definitely sent. We are in a war because diplomacy failed. Maybe it was doomed to fail. But this is one "maybe" too far for me.