Thread by @fa_burkhardt

Lots of speculations Russia might introduce martial law on Friday Mar 04 as the Federation Council - the upper chamber of parliament - convenes for an emergency session. Some arguments for the sake of discussion why the rationale for introducing martial law remains unclear 👇

Martial law is introduced by presidential decree. Putin has to inform State Duma & Federation Council immediately. The Federation Council must approve martial law within 48 hours to become effective. I.e. we should see the presidential decree before or on Friday. Historically...

this would be the first martial law in post-Soviet Russia. Even in 1990s, the "state of emergency" was declared only a few times due to territorial conflicts in North Ossetia & Ingushetia. The 2 wars in Chechnya were conducted without state of emergency. The martial law states...

the reasons when martial law can be declared: these relate to the sovereignty, political independence and territorial integrity of Russia. I.e. it would only make sense if Russia expected an attack by Ukraine or another state on its territory. But then again, Russia could come...

up with any pretext. But: The law was clearly written with a democratic Russia in mind. Under personalist authoritarianism, most goals such as censorship, prohibition of parties or organizations, limits on freedom of movement, the prohibition of protests, the ban of international

or foreign organizations can be achieved without martial law. Think of legislation on extremism and terrorism (destruction of Navalny's network, ban of Jehova's Witnesses etc.), laws on undesirable orgs & foreign agents, crackdown on protests, blocking of Ekho Moskvy & TvRain...

But crucially, martial law would undermine Russia's narrative that the war in Ukraine is *only* a limited "special operation" or "military operation" to pacify the Donbas. With martial law introduced, each and every Russian would understand the war with Ukraine is real, but that

... does not seem to be what Putin wants. At least that is what the media ban of the word "war" suggests. Another option would be to introduce martial law in the Russian regions bordering Ukraine. but then all the limitations on rights and freedoms would also be limited to ...

those regions and could not be instrumentalized for a nation-wide crackdown.
Let's wait for Friday, and here's @Stanovaya's case for martial law.

https://twitter.com/stanovaya/status/1499066053829214209?s=28

Footnote: General/partial mobilization can be declared by presidential decree without declaration of martial law. Duma & Federation Council need to be informed, but no approval necessary. But mobilization would certainly edge Russia closer to martial law.
t.me/pchikov/4662