Today I was asked why Ukraine is winning the information war against Russia. The reasons are many.
1. Ukraine has a free and competitive media market. Yes, there are oligarchs, but they also compete with one another: pluralism. In Russia, the Kovalchuk (Putin) TV controls all.
2. Because of the freedom of speech and media, it is easy to figure out the truth in Ukraine. In Russia, it may cost you 15 years in prison.
3. The Ukrainian media freedom has greatly improved Ukrainian journalism, while Russian journalism has deteriorated since NTV was stolen.
4. The Kremlin has enjoyed keeping foreign correspondents under their thumb. Reuters even cooperates with TASS. If anybody tells the truth, he or she is being expelled (Luke Harding, Guardian, and Sarah Rainsford, BBC). Others self-censor or just listen to Kremlin propaganda.
5. With its increasing repression, the Kremlin has tried to isolate foreign journalists as in Soviet days. They get ever less input from high, from low and from intellectuals, becoming ever more dependent on substandard official information.
6. Previously, Ukraine never had a chance. Only a few stringers resided in Kyiv, but their bosses resided in Moscow and knew the big picture (=Moscow is always right, or at least more important). On the odd occasion, they went to Kyiv for 3 days and saw the Moscow spokespeople.
7. Now everything has changed. All serious media organizations understood something was going to happen and sent several senior journalists to Ukraine - Kyiv, Kharkiv, Lviv, Mariupol. Suddenly everything changed. They knew little but learnt fast because they heard the truth.
8. The Western journalists in Ukraine quickly figured out that they knew more than their isolated colleagues in Moscow and they were more senior so they took command. Suddenly, the more credible Ukrainian story took over because Ukraine is a free country unlike Russia.
9. One important reason for the victory of the Ukrainian view is not only truth and pluralism, but also that so many Ukrainians have learned English in the last few years so that Western journalists can interview intelligent Ukrainians of varied views in English.
10. I have spent many years in both Moscow and Kyiv. Even in Soviet times, Moscow had the great perspective. No longer. Kyiv used to be surprisingly parochial. No longer. Kyiv has widened its horizons. Kyiv is international and cosmopolitan, while Moscow has become parochial.
11. An obvious suggestion is that the international news organizations should rethink their policy in the region whenever Putin's war of aggression is over. If Ukraine remains free, international media should abandon moscow and move to Kyiv, where free media rules.

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More from @anders_aslund

Mar 4
How to understand Putin's war in Ukraine.
1. It is not about Nato, EU, USSR or even Ukraine. Putin needs a war to justify his rule & his swiftly increasing domestic repression.
2. Putin is today's Hitler & 24 Feb 2022 should be seen as 1 Sep 1939. Ukraine is Putin's Poland.
3. This is an all-out war. Putin will not stop or de-escalate. He will escalate & proceed until he is stopped by someone at home or abroad.
4. If Putin succeeds in succumbing Ukraine (which I don't think), he would proceed to other countries, perhaps in Africa or Europe.
5. Exactly as with Hitler, the war will only end when Putin is defeated, ousted or dead.
6. It is really all about Putin, not about neo-imperialism, Russian nationalism or even the KGB.
7. Given what Russia does, the West/US/NATO can hardly avoid getting into this war.
Read 6 tweets
Mar 3
The US has just issued new Russia sanctions. Two real oligarchs have been sanctioned, Alisher Usmanov & NIkolay Tokarev, just sanctioned by the EU. Good. Already sanctioned Yevgeny Prigozhin has been sanctioned with family. What difference does it make?
home.treasury.gov/news/press-rel…
The a whole lot of disinformation agencies and agents from MID, SVR, GRU & FSB have been sanctioned, but none of them is senior or even publicly known, unlike the dozen top disinformers just sanctioned by the EU. Very disappointing. The US: get serious about disinformation!
ABC claims that 19 oligarchs and Putin's chief disinformer Peskov will be sanctioned, but the Treasury has only named two oligarchs so far, Usmanov and Tokarev. Hoping for more.
abcnews.go.com/Politics/us-an…
Read 4 tweets
Mar 2
Essentially, the West took down Russian finances in one day. The situation is likely to become worse than in 1998 because now there is no positive end. All Russia's capital markets appear to be wiped out & they are unlikely to return with anything less than profound reforms.
The Moscow stock markets have closed & Russian stocks are no longer traded in New York, presumably all 31 soon gone in London. The three big foreign banks in Moscow are likely to withdraw: Raiffeisen, Societe General & Unicredit: No profitable business in sight.
After Russia has fallen out of the international payments system, it is very cumbersome to sell to Russia. It is likely to be blacklisted by FATF soon. Why even try to sell there? You don't know whether you will be paid. Lots of companies stop selling to Russia.
Read 8 tweets
Mar 1
A few thoughts about Putin's failure in Ukraine.
1. He knows nothing about Ukraine but believes his own lies. The Russian Embassy in Kyiv has nobody who actually reads Ukrainian sources. Moscow has nobody who does.
2. Sergei Shoigu has destroyed Serdyukov's military reforms.
3. Putin's KGB friend from Dresden, Sergei Chemezov, has destroyed the Russian military complex so Russian military equipment should be sold as scrap iron.
4. Gen. Valeriy Gerasimov's military genius is only propaganda. He is a substandard obedient mind.
5. Putin thought that the West would never become serious about sanctions, because the West (Berlusconi, Schröder, Chirac, Trump & the UK) is so corrupt & well paid by the Kremlin, but something changed (democracy).
6. Ukraine stood up but Putin did not know it existed.
Read 4 tweets
Feb 28
The EU published its latest round of sanctions on 26 Russians for "undermining or threatening the territorial integrity, sovereignty and independence of Ukraine." 3 state CEOs, 6 oligarchs, 8 propagandists, 3 ministers, 4 military, 2 friends & Sogaz.
eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/…
As last week, we see that the EU has got ahead of the US in being much tougher on Russia in its sanctions. It seems as if the EU has gained muscle after the UK departed because the UK sanctions last week were laughable. Now the US had better keep up.
6 real oligarchs were sanctioned. Finally, Alisher Usmanov, the great Putin fronter was sanctioned. The US has to follow. Putin's friend Gennady Timchenko was hit, although he is a Finnish citizen (Great, Finland!).
Read 11 tweets
Feb 27
Unsurprisingly, the Russian invasion of Ukraine seems to be a spectacular failure in so many ways:
The idea of a Blitzkrieg failed. None of the planned tasks was accomplished as planned.
Not one single key city has been taken and held.
The Russian losses have been enormous.
The Russians failed to take out the Ukrainian air force and air defense. Many planes were apparently in the air.
The key airborne attack on Kyiv failed as the Russians failed to take either of the selected airports & the Ukrainians shot down to big IL-76, each w 125 paratroopers.
The attack from three directions on Kyiv is going nowhere. Massive Russian losses on the eastern bank. The attack from the north has been stopped far away (30 km?). The attack from the south is going nowhere.
Read 6 tweets

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