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Mar 3 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
The US has just issued new Russia sanctions. Two real oligarchs have been sanctioned, Alisher Usmanov & NIkolay Tokarev, just sanctioned by the EU. Good. Already sanctioned Yevgeny Prigozhin has been sanctioned with family. What difference does it make?
home.treasury.gov/news/press-rel…
The a whole lot of disinformation agencies and agents from MID, SVR, GRU & FSB have been sanctioned, but none of them is senior or even publicly known, unlike the dozen top disinformers just sanctioned by the EU. Very disappointing. The US: get serious about disinformation!
ABC claims that 19 oligarchs and Putin's chief disinformer Peskov will be sanctioned, but the Treasury has only named two oligarchs so far, Usmanov and Tokarev. Hoping for more.
abcnews.go.com/Politics/us-an…
Here comes a second list with new US sanctions, but only with two relevant names:
Dmitry Peskov,
Igor Shuvalov, CEO, VEB
Apart from a lot of family members of already sanctioned people, mainly Chemezov, Rotenberg, Shuvalov & Tokarev.
Not impressive.
home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/…

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Anders Åslund Profile picture
Mar 4
The essence of the Budapest Memorandum of December 1994:
1. Russia, the UK & the US "reaffirm their commitment to Ukraine"...to respect the independence and sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine"
web.archive.org/web/2014031718…
2. Russia, the UK & the US "reaffirm their obligation to refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine, and that none of their weapons will ever be used against Ukraine."
4. Russia, the UK & the US "reaffirm their commitment to seek immediate [UNSC] action to provide assistance to Ukraine...if Ukraine should become a victim of an act of aggression or an object of a threat of aggression in which nuclear weapons are used;"
Read 4 tweets
Anders Åslund Profile picture
Mar 4
How to understand Putin's war in Ukraine.
1. It is not about Nato, EU, USSR or even Ukraine. Putin needs a war to justify his rule & his swiftly increasing domestic repression.
2. Putin is today's Hitler & 24 Feb 2022 should be seen as 1 Sep 1939. Ukraine is Putin's Poland.
3. This is an all-out war. Putin will not stop or de-escalate. He will escalate & proceed until he is stopped by someone at home or abroad.
4. If Putin succeeds in succumbing Ukraine (which I don't think), he would proceed to other countries, perhaps in Africa or Europe.
5. Exactly as with Hitler, the war will only end when Putin is defeated, ousted or dead.
6. It is really all about Putin, not about neo-imperialism, Russian nationalism or even the KGB.
7. Given what Russia does, the West/US/NATO can hardly avoid getting into this war.
Read 6 tweets
Anders Åslund Profile picture
Mar 3
Today I was asked why Ukraine is winning the information war against Russia. The reasons are many.
1. Ukraine has a free and competitive media market. Yes, there are oligarchs, but they also compete with one another: pluralism. In Russia, the Kovalchuk (Putin) TV controls all.
2. Because of the freedom of speech and media, it is easy to figure out the truth in Ukraine. In Russia, it may cost you 15 years in prison.
3. The Ukrainian media freedom has greatly improved Ukrainian journalism, while Russian journalism has deteriorated since NTV was stolen.
4. The Kremlin has enjoyed keeping foreign correspondents under their thumb. Reuters even cooperates with TASS. If anybody tells the truth, he or she is being expelled (Luke Harding, Guardian, and Sarah Rainsford, BBC). Others self-censor or just listen to Kremlin propaganda.
Read 10 tweets
Anders Åslund Profile picture
Mar 2
Essentially, the West took down Russian finances in one day. The situation is likely to become worse than in 1998 because now there is no positive end. All Russia's capital markets appear to be wiped out & they are unlikely to return with anything less than profound reforms.
The Moscow stock markets have closed & Russian stocks are no longer traded in New York, presumably all 31 soon gone in London. The three big foreign banks in Moscow are likely to withdraw: Raiffeisen, Societe General & Unicredit: No profitable business in sight.
After Russia has fallen out of the international payments system, it is very cumbersome to sell to Russia. It is likely to be blacklisted by FATF soon. Why even try to sell there? You don't know whether you will be paid. Lots of companies stop selling to Russia.
Read 8 tweets
Anders Åslund Profile picture
Mar 1
A few thoughts about Putin's failure in Ukraine.
1. He knows nothing about Ukraine but believes his own lies. The Russian Embassy in Kyiv has nobody who actually reads Ukrainian sources. Moscow has nobody who does.
2. Sergei Shoigu has destroyed Serdyukov's military reforms.
3. Putin's KGB friend from Dresden, Sergei Chemezov, has destroyed the Russian military complex so Russian military equipment should be sold as scrap iron.
4. Gen. Valeriy Gerasimov's military genius is only propaganda. He is a substandard obedient mind.
5. Putin thought that the West would never become serious about sanctions, because the West (Berlusconi, Schröder, Chirac, Trump & the UK) is so corrupt & well paid by the Kremlin, but something changed (democracy).
6. Ukraine stood up but Putin did not know it existed.
Read 4 tweets
Anders Åslund Profile picture
Feb 28
The EU published its latest round of sanctions on 26 Russians for "undermining or threatening the territorial integrity, sovereignty and independence of Ukraine." 3 state CEOs, 6 oligarchs, 8 propagandists, 3 ministers, 4 military, 2 friends & Sogaz.
eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/…
As last week, we see that the EU has got ahead of the US in being much tougher on Russia in its sanctions. It seems as if the EU has gained muscle after the UK departed because the UK sanctions last week were laughable. Now the US had better keep up.
6 real oligarchs were sanctioned. Finally, Alisher Usmanov, the great Putin fronter was sanctioned. The US has to follow. Putin's friend Gennady Timchenko was hit, although he is a Finnish citizen (Great, Finland!).
Read 11 tweets

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