Thread by @Osinttechnical

It’s been a week since Russia kicked off direct hostilities against Ukraine, and here’s where we stand.

First, Russian forces have absolutely met stiffer resistance and failed to meet initial goals.

Kyiv and Kharkiv remain in Ukrainian hands.

The initial campaign of strikes failed to cause crippling damage to the warfighting abilities of the Ukrainians, especially the air defense network and Air Force

The RUAF has also been surprisingly absent from the fighting, some explanations have been put forward for that.

The Russian southern offensive was much more successful in the first few days, as it captured major objectives and secured bridgeheads over the Dnieper River.

Initial Russian offensives in the north, especially around Kyiv, were disastrous. VDV forces took heavy losses

This may be due to the fact that Russian planning did not take potential resistance into account. They may have thought most of the operation would be mopping up isolated units instead of fighting a cohesive enemy with air support and antitank weapons.

On the side of air support, the Russian failure to gain air superiority has hurt them. Ukrainian TB2s have hit rear area units, including advanced SAM systems like the BUK.

The Russian rear area is an absolute mess. The supply situation is snarled, and frontline units are not getting food, munitions, or most importantly, gas. This has forced them to leave behind assets as they push forward or maneuver.

At the same time, the Russians seem to be treating the rear area as secure, while it most certainly isn’t. Irregular Ukrainian forces, SOF, and some regular army units have found themselves behind the lines and wreck havoc on RU supply convoys and rear area units.

The Russian forces continue to push forward despite this, but have run into logistical problems. That 40km convoy was basically a traffic jam from the Belarusian border to the outskirts of Kyiv. From what I have seen the units are still trying to sort themselves out.

Ukrainian forces have trade territory for time in certain places (mostly outside of cities) and conducted a fighting retreat. Turns out the NATO supplied antitank weapons are very effective against Russian armor.

The Russians have admitted to taking some serious losses so far. 500 killed, 1600 wounded. The number is most likely higher. To put that in context, it’s more than the US lost in Iraq for the entirety of 2003, invasion+counter insurgency operations.

The Russ have taken some time to recalibrate their offensive, moving to encircle Kyiv, and bypass Kharkiv. The southern group also captured Kherson, though fighting is still ongoing. Mariupol is currently under siege, and the situation doesn’t look great for the Ukrainians.

Not to get too deeply into my thoughts on why the Russians screwed up this first week, but it probably has a lot to do with the entire concept of the operation. Russian forces thought they could pull a 2014, and just walk in. They aimed to minimize collateral damage.

Combine that with the general Russian doctrine of the light probing attack, and you end up with the Russians feeding troops into strong Ukrainian positions without sending in heavier units behind them.

That has started to change. We saw it a couple of days ago in Kharkiv, when Russian artillery dropped cluster munitions on an urban area. We are now seeing that around the entire country, the Russians are mostly done limiting collateral damage.

The Russian Air Force has even made an appearance, as SU-25s have been operating near Kyiv from Luninets, and SU-34s have been making strikes on Kharkiv.

We’ve already seen one SU-34 take at least serious damage and an SU-25 shot down.

This is most likely because Russian aircraft are forced to use unguided munitions, putting them in range of Ukrainian SHORAD. Not a great recipe for fighter drivers.

I do expect Russian forces to continue to make gains as they get their supply situation sorted out, especially to the west of Kyiv, but they will also continue to take heavy losses. The Ukrainians are receiving large shipments of NATO munitions, and they continue to receive TB2s.

/thread (for now)