Thread by @Osinttechnical

This is the hopeful analysis of the situation, I might as well provide the more disappointing one.

Russia has probably been spending the last few days unscrewing up their supply situation.

The southern offensive is setting up for an amphibious landing near Odessa.

https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1499822066098655234

You can start to see it, the visible rear area Russian formations look more alert. They may not have air superiority, and AD units are becoming keenly aware that there may be enemy aircraft overhead.

The offensive to the east of Kyiv has made some significant progress, bypassing Sumy to move heavier units towards Kyiv. Granted they’re working with a long supply line but they seem to be rolling over a lot of stuff in their way.

Positive side? The VDV is a complete clownshow to the northwest and west of Kyiv. They’re getting ambushed, can’t get across any major rivers, and their lack of heavy armor is hurting them badly.

Russian forces near Kharkiv have decided that the best way to deal with the Ukrainians is to just flatten anything that moves inside the city. And anything that isn’t moving. Frankly they’re just trying to level the city at this point.

There are rumors the Ukrainians are planning a counterattack though.

I guess the message here is not to proclaim victory while the Russians are still advancing. It’s obvious that’s they are having a lot of issues and taking major casualties, but they still have a huge advantage on the Ukrainians.