Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
Mar 4 5 tweets 2 min read
#Moldova: The breakaway region of Moldova opposes the constitutional authorities' decision to apply for EU candidate status. His underlying argument is that Moldova will lose its sovereignty to the West. In real terms, joining the EU implies the delegation of some powers to ⤵️
supranational authorities (the EU institutions). However, this is still a futuristic prospect. However, the separatist regime decided to take advantage of the document presented to the EU, but also the advance of the Russian forces (in Odessa), to put back on the table its ⤵️
demand for recognition of its independence from Moldova. In this sense, they supposedly proposed to Chisinau to sign a "bilateral interstate agreement" that would formalize the separation. The Moldovan authorities were taken by surprise. No response was given to the demands ⤵️
of the separatists. The decision on EU candidate status was rather precipitated by local political calculations (explained in yesterday's tweets) and external circumstances (a similar application to the EU signed by Georgia). With or without such a request, Moldova has been in ⤵️
a process of European integration that is deepening, in which the breakaway region was also involved in some way. Now, the Moldovan authorities triggered another unnecessary problem in addition to 3 crises it faces simultaneously (Covid 19, energy crisis and the refugees' flow).

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More from @DionisCenusa

Mar 4
#Russia_War: Today, Russian troops will most likely land in Odessa Oblast (Zatoka and Chernomorsk). This information is reported by the Ukrainian side. To do this, Su-24M bombers are used to support the landing from the air. The distance from Zatoka to Odessa is 50-60 km.⤵️
Odessa is the last major port city in southern Ukraine that the Russian aggressor was guarding since 2014. As I wrote before the Russian invasion of Ukraine started (8 days ago), the occupation of the south is a high military priority for Putin. This will allow Donbas to be⤵️
connected by land with Crimea and Odessa with the breakaway region of Moldova. It may also mean the full loss of access to the Black Sea for Ukraine in the short and medium term (during the occupation). The Ukrainian resistance plays a central role.⤵️
Read 5 tweets
Mar 3
#Moldova: Under public pressure, the government today decided to apply for EU candidate status. Sandu signed the document. Earlier, the MFA Popescu stated that Moldova will not take advantage of the current situation to apply. Sandu dismissed this as an immediate action during⤵️
the first day of the visit by senior EU officials Borrell and Varhelyi. But the pressure was too high and after Georgia did it, Moldova would be left alone. The problem is that current and future governments will be criticized every time they do not comply with the reforms.
Were it not for the request submitted by Georgia, Moldova would probably hesitate to do so. MFA Popescu rejected this idea just a few days ago. Today, the Moldovan govt. changed its mind and signed the application. ⤵️
Read 4 tweets
Mar 2
#Russia_War: Let's take a closer look at the 35 countries that abstained from voting in favor of the UN resolution on the Russian invasion of Ukraine. I would like to highlight the following (alphabetically): 1) Armenia: Prime Minister Pashinyan relies heavily on Russian⤵️
peacekeepers to preserve remaining parts of Nahogorno-Karabakh and ensure strategic balance in talks with Azerbaijan; 2) Central African Republic: Russian mercenaries have been instrumental in the fight against insurgents (to say the least); 3) China -⤵️
Beijing cannot vote on resolutions against Russia with which it is building a strategic partnership against the West, which will be essential for future attempts to take Taiwan by force; 4) Kazakhstan - President Tokayev did not support the aggression against Ukraine,⤵️
Read 5 tweets
Mar 1
#Ukraine: The European Parliament adopted a resolution (political document) that included among other aspects a reference to Ukraine's EU candidate status. Indeed, this is something more than just the EU perspective (that was previously demanded). However, after taking a ⤵️
closer look at the resolution, the text looks weaker than we expected. First, the EP uses a very general formulation. It "calls" on all EU institutions to "work to grant" Ukraine candidate status. No sense of urgency. Secondly, the EP does not specify the Council of the EU ⤵️
(national governments) that are crucial in the decision on this matter, as well as the European Commission. Third, the EP invokes the existing procedures (art. 49), without suggesting any new "fast track" procedures, as requested by Zelensky or suggested by Poland and Slovakia.⤵️
Read 8 tweets
Mar 1
#Russia_War: This is truly Orwellian. The Ministry of Defense of an invading/aggressor country has warned that the Russian army will launch an attack on the buildings where the State Security and the Center for Information and Psychological Operations of Ukraine (TsIPSO) are ⤵️
located. Therefore, Russia wants to annihilate the institutions from where the Ukrainian forces would carry out an information war against Russia. On any account, Ukraine is fighting against an aggressor. This is indicative of Russia's intentions to break the Ukrainian ⤵️
authorities' control over information inside Ukraine. With this attack, Russia intends to undermine the integrity of Ukraine's information space and replace it with its disinformation. It is clear that Russia wants to conquer the brains of the Ukrainians for as long as it ⤵️
Read 4 tweets
Mar 1
#Russia_War: The Russian aggression is now focused on encircling Mariupol (they want to finish on March 1). If this city port falls, then the Russian army can cut off the Ukrainian government from the Azov sea and create a land corridor from Donbas to the Crimean peninsula. As ⤵️
I previously remarked the Russian invasion has at least two goals: 1) to make Kyiv capitulate (and accept neutrality), and 2) while the attention of the Ukrainian forces is channelled on defending Kyiv and Kharkiv to occupy the southern regions. ⤵️
The second goal envisions to take control over the remaining territories in Donetsk, then extend to Zaporozhya and Kherson to reach Crimea. Earlier, I posted that some parts of Odessa are also under airstrikes. ⤵️
Read 4 tweets

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