Thread by @ceprdc

NEW #JobsReport ANALYSIS:
Here’s a compilation thread of @DeanBaker13’s quick-take analysis of #BLSdata. #JobsDay
Watch @ceprdc later this morning for detailed report.

As expected, another very strong report 678k jobs, unemployment down to 3.8%.
More upward revisions: added 92k to Dec and Jan numbers.

Number reporting being out of the labor force because of the pandemic fell from 1.8 million to 1.2 million. This is a close to half of the drop in the workforce compared to pre-pandemic.

As expected, average workweek rose with the waning of omicron. Increase in average hours, combined with strong job growth, led to 0.8% increase in index of aggregate hours, the equivalent of more than 1 million private sector jobs with no change in hours.

Wage growth still strong but may be moderating in some industries. YOY hourly wage overall up 5.1%, but 5.6% comparing last 3 months (Dec-Feb) with prior 3 (Sept-Nov). For production workers 6.7% YOY, 6.8% comparing last 3 with prior 3.

For production in retail an increase of 7.7% YOY, 9.1% last 3 with prior 3. In leisure and hospitality, wage is 14.3% YOY, but 8.2% last 3 with prior 3.

Wages are still rising rapidly, with workers in the lowest paying sectors seeing gains that far outpace inflation but getting close to a sustainable pace.

As a first approximation, 5.0% wage growth, with the 2.3% productivity growth we have seen over the last 3 years, translates into 2.7% #inflation, assuming no change in capital-labor shares.

Prime age (25 to 54) employment to population ratio rises 0.4 pp to 79.5%, 1.0 pp below pre-pandemic peak. Increase all among men up 0.8 pp, EPOP for prime age women edged down 0.1 pp.

Unemployment rate for workers without a high school degree fell 2.0 pp to 4.3%, the lowest on record. Unemployment rate for workers with just a high school degree edged down to 4.5%, still 1.1 pp above pre-pandemic low.

Unemployment rate for Blacks falls 0.3 pp to 6.6%, 1.2 pp above pre-pandemic low. For Black teens drop is 2.9 pp to 17.8%, 2.8 pp above pre-pandemic low and 7.9 pp above low hit last June.

Unemployment among Asian Americans falls 0.5 pp to 3.1%, still 1.0 pp above pre-pandemic low.
Unemployment rate for Hispanics fell 0.5 pp to 4.4%, 0.4 pp above pre-pandemic low.

Unincorporated self-employed rises 116k, now 440k above 2019 average. Incorporated self-employed up 220k from Feb 2019 level.

With rise in jobs and workweek, the index of aggregate weekly hours is just 0.2% percent below Feb 2020 level, adding in rise in self-employed, we are almost certainly seeing more hours of work than before the pandemic.

60k increase in construction jobs, leaves level just 11k below pre-pandemic level. Manufacturing jobs increase by 36k, but still 178k down from Feb 2020.
Jobs in auto production down 18k in February, likely due to semi-conductor shortage and Canada convoy.

Airlines added 6.9k jobs, employment is up 14.4k from Feb 2020.
Restaurants added 124k jobs, still down 824k jobs from Feb 2020.
S&L government added 24k jobs, still down 695k from pre-pandemic level.

Health added 64k jobs, still down 306k from pre-pandemic level, all of this is explained by a drop in employment of 398k jobs in nursing and residential care facilities.
Watch @ceprdc later this morning for detailed report.