$GLD $SLV
The US/EU could play the SWIFT sanctions card just once-just once and they chose to play it not with a pair ofAces but with a pair of 2s. - why? EVERY despot leader, China, Saudi Arabia all now know that if the US is not happy with you all your
wsj.com/articles/if-cu…
Assets can get frozen instantly. The implications are that they will now want to hold US treasuries (problematic with an ever increasing Current Acc deficit. BTC you saw? Nope-with the entry and exit off-ramp controlled by US sanctions what use is it to have BTC and not being
Able to convert it- hence the sell off this week in Crypto (which is really a NDX levered play anyway) vs Gold which is again shining (no pun intended lol). See with gold you can own it and transact it and there is no @contrarian8888 stamped on the gold bar. I can sell it
Anonymously. The US swift card was the dumbest decision with little thought- where is our US Treasury secretary- why did Yellen not weigh in? If ever there is a reason to think the US$ demise is close-historians will point to this one action. May not happen instantly as world is
Going risk off. But mark my words we played the swift sanction with a pair of 2s when we are massively short commodities. Not everyone has connected the dots but the px action on Precious metals are finally showing the way. Even if Putin withdraws, you’ve lost your virginity and
U can never get it back. GOLD AND SILVER are going to MOON!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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More from @contrarian8888

Mar 4
@PauloMacro makes a ton of sense. This week ive added significant depth to my short book- adding tons of size to $tsla,$AAPL, Tqqq puts, $EWT. Think folks that are not long gold/commodities but long tech may as well put a fully loaded chamber and press the trigger. There is a
Ton of risk here- early in the wk i cut my $uso at 71. The risk of a super spike was too scary. Biden and Nancy Pelosi have no clue where oil and coal come from- Willy Nillly saying we dont need Russian oil?? Commodity prices can all super spike- and much worse than 2008 when the
World was at least not in a war. Long tech? God help you. This is a vix 50 environment not 30. Market is sleep walking into a crisis and part of the reason im not touching my commodity longs is i know from painful experience trying to short em in 2008 just how stupid things can
Read 4 tweets
Mar 2
Fantastic thread. For someone who got out of $RSX unscathed but then stupidly got back into $SBER on Friday and gotten a lot of private DM and public abuse since I respect 1 all that @LT3000Lyall has been so generously been willing to share.2.I agree if you could get a broker to
Allow you to buy Lukoy at < 1$, SBER at 2c, id sell my kidney to buy as much as possible given the asymmetric returns. Heads u become a billionaire, tails, you drink less lol. 3. Nature of going after asymmetric returns will by nature lead to not great outcomes once in a while.
-and the story hasn’t been set yet. Interestingly Bloomberg said that SBER in the end was not sanctioned- didnt matter stock went to 2c not because of fundamentals but because all the brokers only allowed a sale not a purchase. By default stocks wouldnt go down if many potential
Read 5 tweets
Mar 1
$TQQQ buying the dip mantra never fails. Looking at flows into tqqq again hitting records- this is not what u see at the bottom- what you see at a bottom is a full revulsion & “get me out”. I understand that the market wants to go full Monty to a Powell will go dovish tilt
Given the Russian/Ukraine sitn. I question if that is really possible with Inflation ratcheting up with us losing Russian & Ukraine as a reliable supplier for so many commodities- just look at whats going on with coal px Wheat etc recently. I also wonder how the Russian sitn can
Be resolved with Putin not losing face w/o a ratcheting up of tensions including threatening of Nukes. To me were in a vol 50 environment not vol 20. Finally removing swift access to Russian banks is far more complicated and with many cross currents to so many Financials that I
Read 4 tweets
Feb 28
$TSLA. For someone who cut 60% of his short at 730 last Thursday i have re shorted 1/2 of what i cut today at 857$, This is the gift that Keeps giving. And oh yeah, YTD my tsla profits >$sber position which i had always considered a high risk lotto sitn. Added some today too.
My view on sber is that there is a 70% chance this is a 0. But there is also a 30% chance its a 30x (20 bagger just getting to where it was in Oct, + some premium if russia gets rerated with a change in govt).Not the risk most people would take but im also the idiot who bot
$AR (@1.6$) when everyone told me ar was going bust, $btu (@$3) when coal was dead, $PDN (@12c) when there was debt overhang and uranium had 1bn in inventories etc. Or PANR (30p) when it had a bad well result last spring. I seek out these situations knowing i could fully be
Read 4 tweets
Feb 26
I have to thank @trader_ferg for helping me discover @LT3000Lyall & lyall’s jan 28 blog on the background on the Russian/Ukraine situation is must reading as opposed to all the garbage you see on twitter with half baked analysis lt3000.blogspot.com/2022/01/us-vs-…
It is clear there is high risk, the situation is fluid, and by no means am i not saddened by the suffering undergoing by innocent Ukrainians. That being said, when assets are trading at such a depressed valuation (eg $SBER at 1.5x per), the pulpit of “warnings” be it IBKR Image
Or Mr famous “hell is coming” @BillAckman who cried on TV during the depths of covid whilst quietly buying stocks warning about Russian banks. Again who knows how the situation unfolds, but when local Moscovites are willing to value a bank at a 50% premium to westerners one Image
Read 5 tweets
Feb 25
$RSX $SBER. So interesting news today- Russian duma saying they wont pay dividends to countries that have imposed sanctions. As i mentioned in my tweet earlier today when buying- i had no huge expectations on if the dividend would be paid or not- just knowing the discount was too
Large. However what i find fascinating, and h/t to @daveypingpong for sending this to me- until yesterday- $SBER stock traded in Moscow and GDR/ADR traded right on top of each other. Today the moscow stock trades at a 50% premium. (Huge contrast to the pre 2000 period when
Gasprom traded at a 3-4x premium in the adr to the local stock. If the dividends are not happening any time soon- i would think the asset you want to own is $SBER given its already reflected no dividends (ie Moscow stock at a 50% premium to GDR/ADR) vs Gazprom or any other listed
Read 4 tweets

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