Wanted to add a third item to the list of "Vladimir's Delusions"--not only underestimating Ukrainian resistance and Western resolve, but apparently Chinese willingness to help. A 🧵. 1/
https://twitter.com/FPRI_Orbis/status/1498039977766236172
During the 4 February summit, Putin seems to believe he got a pretty large blank check from Xi. Perhaps this was predicated on a rapid Russian fait accompli in Ukraine. But as this drags on and as sanctions tighten, China is holding back. 2/
In the weeks prior to the invasion, Russian commentators kept stressing that Russia would just pivot away from the West to China and survive quite nicely. Not so apparent now. 3/
China seems to be waiting on what happens. Moreover, given the scope and depth of sanctions, China is likely to have to create new institutions to handle Russia-China transactions to shield Chinese institutions that are fully integrated into Western financial & trade networks. 4/
For Russia, bans on all sorts of Western (and other Asian) imports creates real problems for the economy. And taking payment in yuan/renminbi means you only buy from China or suppliers willing to be paid in yuan--not many takers elsewhere. 5/
Losing access to German/European, American, Japanese & Korean hi-tech goods means paying much higher prices for inferior products from China, and China can't cover all of Russia's likely technology deficits. 6/
For years, Russia resisted giving China controlling stakes in key enterprises especially in its Siberian/Arctic treasuries. Rosneft for instance did not want Chinese board members who would take an active role in directing and mandating company activity. 7/
That refusal will now be impossible under the changed conditions in which Russia will have to function. Again, Chinese entities likely to get discounted shares with more influence and control than Russia had to face with BP, Shell, etc. 8/
The three underestimations--of Ukraine, the West and China--add up to a very costly set of mistakes for Moscow. END
Update: apparently Xi was counting on an easy little war …
https://twitter.com/AMFChina/status/1500000181487550471
China may seek a balancing act …
https://twitter.com/abarbashin/status/1500041930142531584
Another point showing this trend:
https://twitter.com/ViktorSeliukov/status/1500525860843102209
And where this may go:
https://twitter.com/frandesanti/status/1500581193510793216
Increasingly not apparent:
https://twitter.com/Lingling_Wei/status/1500637096326873091
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