If this is true, this could be quite important. It could allow for creative solutions that bring security to Ukraine, but address some of the core security dilemma issues that any Russian government, not just Putin, would have. 1/
https://twitter.com/vtchakarova/status/1500532471225593859
One could see an arrangement between Ukraine and NATO that would allow for the development of a comprehensive air defense system based on the borders with Poland and Romania that would protect Ukrainian airspace, but would not be able to have any range to strike into Russia. 2/
This would be similar to the 1997 arrangement between Greece, Turkey, and Cyprus over the basing of air defense systems to protect Cyprus but be based in Greece. 3/
Certain red lines could be written into an agreement that would make clear what actions by Russia would automatically trigger alliance responses. I would argue that our policy of strategic ambiguity about Ukraine over the last20 years did not end up sufficiently deterring Russia.
The tragedy is that Macron & Scholz were trying to do this (propose talks that might have led to these compromises) right up to Putin’s invasion, and he chose force. 4/
What Ukraine might have been willing to accept on February 15 may not be acceptable anymore now that blood has spilled and damage has been inflicted. END
Addendum: will address in a separate thread whether or not the territorial integrity question is as much of a dealbreaker, especially if there is willingness in Ukraine, and perhaps a new leadership in Russia, to make a deal.
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