Some thoughts on #tungsten below:
2020 market size was about 106,000 tonnes
80% of this comes from China
7% was consumed in defence, of which 80% goes into ammunition
7% was consumed in a depressed Oil and Gas sector
24% was consumed in a depressed mining sector
One of the likely fallouts from the Russia / Ukraine invasion are Free World policy shifts towards energy and raw material independence becoming strategic priorities.
#Tungsten's main uses are for whenever you drill, cut metal and for specialty alloys. It is largely unsubstitutable for these applications.
Energy independence = drilling: MORE #TUNGSTEN REQUIRED
Metals independence = exploration drilling and more mines: MORE TUNGSTEN REQUIRED
Increased defence spending = MORE TUNGSTEN REQUIRED
Conclusion: 38% of end uses for #Tungsten are very likely to see a significant demand shock, starting now.
$tun #Tungsten
Tungsten West's Hemerdon Project is the second largest tungsten deposit in the World. Production starts early 2023 - supply about 4% if World demand.
$tun
Tungsten West trades on the AIM exchange under symbol TUN
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Some thoughts on the current markets below. There are once in a generation (or even once in a lifetime) opportunities right now.
1. There was not enough "stuff" today before Ukraine and Russian sanctions with most commodities in major deficits 2. There is even less "stuff" in the future due to a decade of underinvestment in new capacity and exploration and a demand shock from the Green Energy Revolution
3. Russia is an autarky - they are self sufficient in energy, metals and food - and a major producer and exporter of many critical commodities 4. Russia is now and will be for years to come a pariah state - doing business there or trading with them will cripple your business
This thread is loosely about Rudyard Kipling and his poem “If”.
WE ARE AT AN ‘If” MOMENT
- “If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs.” -
Will you be a rabbit in the headlights or have the right portfolio and make the right investment decisions?
What is the big picture?
- 40 year bull market in bonds
- 40 year bear market in interest rates
- 13 years of ultra-easy monetary policy
- Paradigm shift in where energy is sourced
- 13 years of underinvestment in mineral exploration
- Ludicrous valuations and market happenings
- Fundamentals ignored
- “This time is different mentality”
(see GameStop, Hertz, negative yields in Govt bonds, everything crypto, P.E. Ratios in Tesla etc etc etc)
#Peru#copper # tin #zinc#lead
So I tweeted a thread a couple of months back on how the election of a Communist President of Peru would seriously deter future mining investment, and put at risk existing production levels.
I have quietly watched developments since, including the burning of mining camps, road blockades and this week's uncertainty on maybe cancelling some mine permits. Sadly for the long-term prosperity of the Peruvian people my fears are playing out.
Investors crave certainty - there is currently none. #Peru is now uninvestible for new foreign Western World capital going in.
So what is the Govt's game plan here? Here is what I think they are doing / will be doing:
This is complicated, so do feel free to tweet any questions!
First up some terms:
Contango: when the forward price is above the current spot price
Backwardation: when the forward price is below the current spot price
When a market is well supplied or in surplus it tends to be in contango. The normal state of metal markets is to be in contango from the cash date, but with the contango becoming less as you go further forward.
This is because there is a limit to how big this contango can be as otherwise there would be an arbitrage in buying metal today, storing it, and then selling it at a future date at a profit. This concept is called “full finance contango”.
Everything that is happening to the #tin price would have happened 8 years ago if Myanmar had not come along and gone from 2kt to 60kt of production overnight.
Market demand is 30% higher today, and Myanmar production in terminal decline as all the rich pickings are depleted.
Who can fill This void in the short or medium term? Only artisanal producers in DRC and Indonesia - but little sign of that at the moment.
Long term we need new, large hard rock mines. But there are very few known assets that can add more than one or two thousand tonnes of supply
#copper $MNO.v
So a quick thread on why VMS type copper deposits are so much more valuable than porphyries.
(I am talking in the generic here, and each project has its own specifics so please do not message me saying I am wrong about such and such project!)
VMS = Volcanogenic Massive Sulphide are “black smokers” emplaced on the sea floor and then moved to surface via tectonic activity. They are almost always polymetallic and contain copper, zinc, gold, silver, zinc and lead.
VMS’s are found around plate boundaries and usually occur in clusters – or “camps” – such as Flin Flon, Bathurst or Noranda. Tonnages typically range form a few million tonnes of ore to +100Mt. Copper equivalent grades are typically 1.5% ish.