#copper $MNO.v
So a quick thread on why VMS type copper deposits are so much more valuable than porphyries.
(I am talking in the generic here, and each project has its own specifics so please do not message me saying I am wrong about such and such project!)
VMS = Volcanogenic Massive Sulphide are “black smokers” emplaced on the sea floor and then moved to surface via tectonic activity. They are almost always polymetallic and contain copper, zinc, gold, silver, zinc and lead.
VMS’s are found around plate boundaries and usually occur in clusters – or “camps” – such as Flin Flon, Bathurst or Noranda. Tonnages typically range form a few million tonnes of ore to +100Mt. Copper equivalent grades are typically 1.5% ish.
Porphyries are magmatic intrusions associated with plate boundaries and are typically between 100Mt and +1Bt. They often contain a gold credit but are lower grade than VMS’s – copper equivalent grades are typically 0.5% ish.
In the last cycle M&A transactions on porphyries averaged around 3c / lb of contained copper and VMS’s around 30c /lb. 3x the grade, but 10x in value – why?
VMS’s are typically closer to surface and have a lower strip ratio than porphyries. Let’s assume 1:1 for a VMS and 3:1 for a porphyry (you need a bigger pit to go deeper.)
Porphyries also need a much bigger processing plant as you are processing ore at one third of the grade of a VMS. Capex is therefore much higher.
VMS’s metallurgical recoveries are typically higher for a VMS – maybe 95% Cu and 90% on Au - versus a porphyry at 85% on copper, and 70% on gold.
Capex for a VMS is much lower per tonne of copper capacity as you are building a smaller pit or underground mine, and a much smaller processing plant and mine waste facility.
Taking Cu price at $10,000 then:
0.5% Porphyry = $50 rock with a $40 per tonne recovered value
1.5% VMS = $150 rock with a $135 per tonne recovered value
Mining costs at $5 per tonne are $10 for a VMS with 1:1 strip ratio, and $20 for a Porphyry with a 3:1 strip ratio. Processing costs for both let’s call $10 per tonne.
Profit margin on the Porphyry = $40 - $20 - $10 = $10 per tonne of ore
Profit margin on the VMS = $135 - $10 - $10 - $115 per tonne of ore
This is why VMS deposits are worth 10x per contained pound of copper than a porphyry.
Meridian Mining $MNO.v Cabacal project is a VMS deposit, with exploration potential to be camp scale. The above is why I own this stock instead of any porphyry projects.
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#mining#copper#tin
I have been asked by several people now about how to evaluate the management team for a project and what to look for and what to avoid. This thread hopefully will provide some good pointers.
Truth Number One:
A mediocre project with good management is a better investment than a great project with mediocre management.
Truth Number Two:
There is no such thing as a bad project with good management: good people just don't get involved with bad projects.
#copper
“The world’s top copper producer Chile saw output of the red metal fall for the tenth consecutive month in March, government statistics agency INE said on Friday.
Copper output fell 1.3% in March, to 491,720 tonnes, the agency said.”
#copper
Chile also introducing new restrictions on movement and commerce following the Southern Hemisphere’s summer holidays. I expect their already bad Covid situation to get worse as they move into their Winter / European Summer.
#copper
As I understand it most mines have had essential workers only on site - very few contractors allowed in. This means essential specialist work and maintenance has not been kept up to date with operating and mining plans.
#zinc
The global zinc market is, give or take, 13 million tonnes. China is far and away the largest producer with over a third of mine production and smelter capacity. Supply growth in China is static though with new mines barely replacing old mine capacity.
#zinc
Zinc’s main use is as a anti-corrosion coating on steel in the construction and automotive industries. This is called galvanization. Other uses include alloy (brass mainly) die-casting precision components and as a fertiliser additive.
#zinc
Consumption growth is highly correlated to Global economic growth - 2.5x geared to growth above/below 2.5%. (i.e. zero consumption growth at 2.5%, but 5% consumption GDP growth of 4.5%.)
#tin
Tin is the 49th most abundant element within the Earth and has the chemical symbol Sn, which is derived from the Latin word “Stannum”. Crustal abundance is only 2 parts per million (“ppm”) compared with 75 ppm for zinc, 50 ppm for copper, and 14 ppm for lead.
#tin Tin mining dates back at least 4000 years to the Bronze Age, when tin was alloyed with copper to make bronze. Tin does not occur as the native element but must be extracted from oxide ores. Cassiterite (SnO2) is the only commercially important source of tin.
#tin Cassiterite is insoluble in water and erosional processes of deposits often results in placer deposits. Maybe 70% of all historic tin production has come from hydraulic mining or dredging of these alluvial type deposits, where grades as low as 0.015% tin can be economic.
#Tin
The secret to tin investment is easy if you focus on 3 things: mineralogy, mineralogy and mineralogy.
#tin Cassiterite is THE ONLY commercially valuable tin mineral. Most hard rock tin deposits contain some stannite (tin sulphide) and tin silicates. Look at the cassiterite grade, NOT tin grade.
#tin Alluvial deposits are more attractive generally than hard rock as they are 100% cassiterite. Cassiterite is dense with a specific gravity of 7 so water action concentrates it in placer type deposits.
#GOLD
Why you should only ever buy gold mining stocks and not gold.
#gold
This is going to make me unpopular with some of you, but I am going to explain why you should never buy gold. Do not confuse this with owning gold mining stocks though.
#gold
Gold is a store of value. This is true. In Roman times one ounce of gold would clothe a men nicely and the same is true today.