Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #copper

Most recents (24)

China October trade balance(in USD term) $85.15bln; Est. $95.97bln, Prev. $84.75 bln;
#Imports -0.7% y/y ; Est. +0.0%, Prev.+0.3%;
#Exports -0.3% y/y ; Est. +4.5%, Prev.+5.7%.
1/ thread #trade #import #export #economy 🇨🇳 🇺🇸
#China October Yuan-denominated trade data
Trade balance +586.81 bln yuan; Prev.+573.57 bln yuan;
Imports +6.8% y/y, Est.+10.0%, Prev.+5.2%.
Exports +7.0% y/y, Est.+12.7%, Prev.+10.7%.
2/ thread #trade #import #export #econtwitter 🇨🇳
3/ #China's Jan-October #trade with
ASEAN +15.8% y/y to 5.26 trillion yuan
🇪🇺EU +8.1% y/y to 4.68 trillion yuan
🇺🇸US +6.8% y/y to 4.21 trillion yuan
🇰🇷Korea +6.5% y/y to 2.02 trillion yuan
Read 5 tweets
👉#Copper shot up 7.57% on 4th November 2022.

Do you know❔
👉When was the last time we saw such a wild move in copper❔

It was
🔸on 6th Feb 2009
When copper shot up 8.57% in a single day.

🔸So what happened on 4th was "Move of the Decade"🧵

👉Like & Retweet if u like d work
But why did copper rose like there is no tomorrow ?

- On optimism that there might be relaxation in China’s Covid policies

- A steep decline in the dollar

- Historical low inventory of copper
Why is falling dollar good for copper ?

- A slumping dollar boosts purchasing power for commodities consumer countries like China.

- Yuan appreciated the most against USD since 2005.
Read 25 tweets
The tight supply of raw materials will be the main bottleneck to Tesla's 50%/yr vehicle growth target this decade. It is NOT a good thing $TSLA feels the need to get into mining. Rather, it is a huge warning sign...
that there won't be enough raw materials for most OEMs that have multi-million vehicle/yr growth ambitions. That means the battery input costs will get bid up until OEMs either begin dropping out of the EV race OR the supply of these raw materials increases significantly. Image
The latter is unlikely anytime soon. Depending on technical challenges, jurisdiction, permitting, feasibility studies, financing, etc. new #Lithium, #Nickel, #Graphite, and #Copper mines take 5-10+ years just to start production, let alone scale. E.g. On $TSLA Battery Day... Image
Read 25 tweets
I've been saying this before and I'll say it again, #Bitcoin is trading as a digital commodity 💯

The rules are simple...

If you are bearish on #BTC you are bearish on #Copper. If you see new ATHs for COPPER you are seeing new ATHs for BTC as well 🫡

#Bitcoin is here to stay, whether you like it or not.

The big difference between the two is the volatility of a new asset. Where one does 100% the other does 1000%. The same goes for HTF pullbacks.
The math is then pretty simple.

We live in a world of unlimited credit/fiat money, where governments/CBs, even if they don't want to, will be forced to "print digitally"

But we also live in a world of limited scarce assets.

Infinite credit will be chasing finite assets.
Read 4 tweets
China September trade balance(in USD term) $84.75bln; Est. $80.3 bln, Prev. $79.39 bln;
#Imports +0.3% y/y ; Est. +0.0%, Prev.+0.3%;
#Exports +5.7% y/y ; Est. +4.0%, Prev.+7.1%.
1/ thread #trade #import #export #economy 🇨🇳 🇺🇸
#China September Yuan-denominated trade data
Trade balance +573.57 bln yuan; Est.+564.30 bln yuan, Prev.+535.91 bln yuan;
Imports +5.2% y/y, Est.+8.4%, Prev.+4.6%.
Exports +10.7% y/y, Est.+11.3%, Prev.+11.8%.
2/ thread #trade #import #export #econtwitter 🇨🇳
3/Thread #trade #import #export #econtwitter 🇨🇳
Read 6 tweets
Most of remaining global #copper "yet to find" resources are estimated to be in sedimentary copper deposits.

Major sedimentary copper deposits occur on 170km lithosphere thickness boundary🌎👀

Nature likes order 📏

Why does it happen?

How can you use it as an investor? Image
Below paper summarised for non geos 👇

I read it so you do not have to. Image
3/x Before we dive in, you need to know what is "lithosphere" .

Part of crust and upper mantle - the harder outer shell of planet earth.

Thickness can vary from few kms to 400km depending on the place on earth. Image
Read 11 tweets
1/20 South American Copper 🧵1: Traditional stomping grounds of Chile and Peru appear increasingly difficult jurisdictions for big copper mines. Grades are declining and the PolRisk arising from fiscal uncertainty in both Chile and Peru are problematic. #mintwit #copper #PolRisk
2/20 I don't think searching for copper equity opportunities in the region makes sense at the current prices we see. You might be paying up for quality in a few cases ($FIL comes to mind) but I expect the next few years to be difficult ones for Chile and Peru.
3/20 PolRisk situation makes starting a project (brown or green field) hard and the projects that exist are too big for juniors on their own,, that mix creates limited equity opportunities. The following are some points to support that assertion.
Read 20 tweets
Copper industry may deliver 1.5 million tons from greenfield capacity in the period 2025-30, with +50% of the potential identified supply likely to hit the market after 2030. This is not on time for a green transition.
We think there is greenfield copper projects with more than 285 million tons of resources, with the ability to produce more than 6 million tons a year in some stage of development. Bloomberg and GS research supports similar type numbers.
About 30% of projects are either being ramped up or are in the late stages of construction, and could deliver 1.9 million tons of copper annually by 2025. Beyond 2025 S/D balance probably requires ~500,000 tons of new capacity each year, by our calculations.
Read 5 tweets
#DRC, "Solution Country" to the climate crisis ? My colleague @jm_senga and I recently traveled for @amnesty to the South-East of the #DRC, where industrial mining of #cobalt threatens the survival of entire communities. 👇🏽THREAD 1/11
As @Precop27RDC comes to an end in Kinshasa and ahead of #COP27, Congolese and international policymakers must stop turning a blind eye to the fate of people at the frontline of industrial mining of strategic minerals… 2/11 Image
The mining city of Kolwezi, in the former Katanga province, has all the features of a "sacrifice zone." There, multinationals extract #cobalt and #copper, 2 minerals that are driving the energy transition. 3/11 Image
Read 11 tweets
Time for an update on how the energy crisis is driving a new #silver bull market. For the full story, check out my original thread below.

Let's start with the supply side 👇
Zinc, Lead, and Copper smelting are very energy intensive. Energy makes up 40% of operational costs. Eurometrix estimates over 50% of capacity is already offline in Europe.

And as @LukeGromen points out, this is a BIG deal.

This is before winter. IntelliNews breaks down the situation well and suggests the shutdowns will continue:…
Read 20 tweets
#China's August urban surveyed unemployment rate 5.3%[Est. 5.4%;Prev. 5.4%]
Jan-Aug urban fixed investment +5.8% y/y [Est.+5.5%;Prev.+5.7%]
Aug industrial value-added +4.2% y/y [Est.+3.8%;Prev.+3.8%]
Aug retail sales +5.4% y/y [Est.+3.5%;Prev.+2.7%]
1/n #GDP #EconTwitter 🇨🇳
China produced 5.74 million tons of non-ferrous metal in August, which rose by 6.7%, the most since January 2021.
Jan-Aug non-ferrous metal productions +1.9% to 44 million tons.
2/ #China #copper #aluminum
In Aug, #China's total retail sales were recorded at 3.6258 trillion yuan, up 5.4% y/y but dropped 0.05% m/m.
Among them, retail sales of goods were 3.25 trillion yuan, which rose by 5.1% y/y; The total revenue for the catering industry was 374.8 billion yuan, surged 8.4% y/y.
Read 6 tweets
Following up on my thread about the structural change in the #copper market, let’s look at the undeveloped copper deposits that can help increase production.

Most deposits are in South America, and I provide a comprehensive list of those.

International Copper Study Group presents both the global identified and undiscovered #copper resources in this image. Clearly, South America dominates both categories.
In the tweet below I show 57 large #copper deposits based on the host country and ownership.

This graph excludes some very big deposits in the US as well as the entire Central African Copperbelt. However, a clear tendency is that majors already own the better projects and Chile/Peru host the majority of those. In addition, Argentina host 3 very large deposits.

Read 18 tweets
China August trade balance(in USD term) $79.39 bln; Est. $92.40 bln, Prev. $101.26 bln;
#Imports +0.3% y/y ; Est. +1.20%, Prev.+2.3%;
#Exports +7.1% y/y ; Est. +13.0%, Prev.+18.0%.
1/ thread #trade #import #export #economy 🇨🇳 🇺🇸
#China August Yuan-denominated trade data
Trade balance +535.91 bln yuan, Prev.+682.69 bln yuan.
Imports +4.6% y/y, Est. +6.3%, Prev.+7.4%.
Exports +11.8% y/y, Est. +18.5%, Prev.+23.9%.
2/ thread #trade #import #export #econtwitter 🇨🇳
3/Thread #trade #import #export #econtwitter 🇨🇳
Read 6 tweets
Thread on the national security implications of #ElectricVehicles

1- Graphite Production
Not in Europe! Not in the US! Image
2- Lithium Production
Not in Europe! Not in the US! Image
3- Cobalt Production
Not in Europe! Not in the US! Image
Read 8 tweets
"The short answer: No, not even close."

Robert Hunziker – Is There Enough Metal To Replace Oil?… #resources #RenewableEnergy #technology
"When @SimonMichaux presented basic information to #EU analysts, it was a shock to them. To his dismay, they had not put together the various mineral/metal data requirements to phase out fossil fuels and replaced by renewables. They assumed, using guesstimates, ...
... the metals would be available."
Read 8 tweets
Just finished studying the July 2022 report "The Future of Copper":…

Here are some highlights:
It's predicting a 10 million mt shortfall in #copper supply by 2035, under its baseline scenario, which assumes a continuation of current trends in the capacity utilization of mines and recycling of recovered copper.
Copper—the “metal of electrification”—is essential to all energy transition plans. But the potential supply-demand gap is expected to be very large as the transition proceeds. Substitution and recycling will not be enough to meet the demands of electric vehicles (EVs),..
Read 8 tweets
Let’s look at the structural change in the #copper market that will be relevant once the cyclical economic situation has played out in the coming months and IF the energy transition is going to happen in a meaningful way.
Thread below.
@SPGCIMetals recently released a study that I recommend people to read.

What is important to understand is that the demand for #copper is going to increase greatly within the coming decades,
2/n Image
which represents a huge mismatch to the supply that is likely going to be available. A mismatch that requires a much higher copper price to solve (solve = make sure new production comes online but also ensure demand destruction to some degree).

Why will supply be lagging?
3/n Image
Read 18 tweets
Ehi there #Crypto and #macro Twitter

Time for #market analysis #Number12!

"Quiet, before the storm"

I will explain here what happened since last week, and cover the broader #economy as it breaks

I will start from #onchain #BTC, going into #Technical Analysis + #macro🧵
First of all, if you want to have a deeper insight in what happened the week before, you should check my last #weekly #analysis

I'll put the link here for you:

But let's start digging into this week, should we?
Last week we experienced a rally in #crypto with #Eth leading the way with a speculative date on the merge happening on September 19th.

BTC managed to rally breaking the trendline at resistance and the realized price, but failed to maintain those as support ImageImageImage
Read 23 tweets
We told you to sell base metal miners on 15/5/22. That was a good call.

As with other l/s call such as "short gold" in Nov 2020, it received critisism.

Let us now review what happened with Dr Copper (one proxy) since.

1/n 🧵👋 #copper
Starting June 2nd, Cu collapsed 29% in less than six weeks. How often did that happen?

Answer: not often! In past 25y Cu crashed only 8x >7% in a single week as in one week this June (stat below) & only 29x >5% (2x per week in June & July 2022).

Big quantamentel signals!

How is that possible, when global reported inventories (LME; Comex; Shanghai) are below their 10-year average? Aren't commodities priced on inventories?

Chart: Global Cu inventory (reported by exchanges); Source: Bloomberg
Read 10 tweets
Since #copper is on everyone's mind today after @PauloMacro thread, I'm going to highlight 2 tweets from Andrew C, whom correctly called the copper top before it was cool.

1. How much copper China's property market consumes:
2. Incoming supply:

Unless China goes full retard over stimmies, which is what I think will happen yet has been wrong so far, it's hard to see copper being in deficit until 2024.

Say it with me: China is the ONLY thing that MATTERS
But miners margins are being squeezed & tightness could come faster as marginal producers get priced out. As a wise 🐨 said: "Volatility is the Ally of Quality". The 2024 cliff in supply will ONLY get worse as investors shy away given coppers dramatic price drop!!!
Read 5 tweets
#copper @PauloMacro has nailed it there is a massive d/s gap showing up in CU and short term transitory issues - ie recession fears/china you name it are causing a massive fear. However, listen to this odd lot podcast (time stamp 14.30 mins if you are pressed for time on why
This bull market is different from the last bull mkt. As Tracy states we “traumatize the last crisis which results in a fear of investing now: in addition permitting even in the Saudi Arabia of Cu- Chile takes years longer than what was a 6 -12 mos process. Another article
Read 7 tweets
🧵Macro prediction for #OIL

Everyone in the world currently has a stressful moment visiting gas stations, they'll be delighted to hear, that for a few months forward this situation will get better as $OIL will be getting cheaper

However that will only apply for a while 👇

After the covid crash across global markets, we've seen some unprecedented printing that has sent the prices of assets to big highs, Oils included.

Oil is slightly lagging behind the rest of the commodities but we can expect the correlation to follow others

Here we have #Copper & #Oil merged together, we can see the correlation being very effective & while most commodities have already pulled back to retest their previous support areas, Oil is yet to do so

It is merely lagging & stayed strong due to the war in Ukraine. For now.

Read 14 tweets

A secret untold story that nobody is talking about

After reading this thread, you'll be 1 in a Million to know about this 💎

🔹 Metals correlation
🔹 DXY correlation
🔹 Copper sharp drops
🔹 Technicals
🔹 Fundamentals

Now that I got your attention let's dig in

Many people are aware of the SPX & #BTC correlation but I believe the best asset correlation to be used for #Bitcoin is METALS & $DXY

Mainly Copper & Silver

And the root cause of it all is the Dollar & the FED policy of course 👇

🔹 Metals correlation

It's kinda crazy when u see it first and think why is nobody seeing this

I've pointed out the correlation with Copper first and marked each significant cycle low & bottom.

You can see how closely they correlate to each other on the Higher Timeframes

Read 28 tweets
Welcome to the Most Anticipated Recession in History - One data point from the Fed’s officialdom confirms the United States is in a technical recession and heading for a potential hard landing - by @TraderStef #GDP #Recession #DemandDestruction #TaperCaper… Image
Read 10 tweets

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