1/ Seeing increased speculation on this site about Putin’s hold on power, and whether his inner circle may begin distancing itself from him. So far we’ve seen no sign of that. And as @AlexGabuev has noted, they stand to benefit from a more isolated and repressive Russia.
2/ Worth noting he wrote the piece before Russia invaded Ukraine and the West unleashed sanctions so severe not even the most conservative of stress tests within the Kremlin could have predicted them. That having been said, Putin’s siloviki are ideologically aligned with him.
1/ A message from a source in Kyiv who asked that I share. I have translated from Russian: “It is very difficult to explain the mood of the population in short phrases - this is the pain of betrayal of neighbors - "friendly" Slavic peoples, and anger at the occupier,
2/ and the horror of what has been experienced and is being experienced, and fear of the uncertainty of the future. But, in 98% there is an unshakable faith in victory, in our army, in our own strength. Few remain detached from these events -
3/ Everyone is doing their part. Even the elderly with very little means are donating money to help the cause. Women and children are volunteering. (for reasons of national security I will not describe in detail).
1/ Watching the Kremlin's propaganda machine - used to preplanned and scripted programming- have to improvise in real time to the Russian public...It's becoming increasingly difficult to explain how an operation "targeted just to the East", is not over yet?
2/ How do you explain where their sons are now? How to respond to even the most loyal viewer what their family members or friends in Ukraine are telling them? Sending them pictures of? Why is Russia bombing Kharviv? Kyiv? All of this can't just easily be dismissed as lies.
3/Especially as this war continues. And most significant, is how to explain why they can't get money out of their banks, see prices go up, interest rates sky rocket, and access to so many western made goods, disappear.
1/ Going after Putin’s inner circle and Oligarchs is an important step and one that many argue should have happened years ago. That having been said, Putin -to use Trump’s 🤷🏻♀️ description- is savvy enough to know he can’t be seen as beholden to anyone…
2/ This is why you saw that cringeworthy dressing down of one of his security chiefs Monday (which was prerecorded and could have easily been edited out). It wasn’t for a reason. He’s done the same in the past with Oligarchs like Oleg Deripaska (demanding he return a pen)….
3/ As @katyakotrikadze notes, this is intentional. For the country and world to see them shaking in fear. In addition, the staged process we’ve seen this week of Putin following the “democratic path”, of going before a Duma where his only real opposition is the Communist party.
.@SecBlinken to @tvrain: "A problem for any system that, like Russia, unfortunately turns into an autocracy (is that) few people tell the truth to those in power. I'm worried that President Putin doesn't necessarily get facts and truthful information." 1/ tvrain.ru/teleshow/veche…
..."If he believes that in Ukraine the Russian military will be welcomed with open arms, then I'm afraid he is deeply mistaken." 2/
.@katyakotrikadze: "You just touched on the issue of information that Putin receives. There are concerns and doubts in Russia about the information you get from your intelligence. What is the level of reliability of these sources?" 3/
1/Facing 15 ADDITIONAL years in prison on trumped up charges, @navalny is as determined as ever:
"I’m telling you now, employees of the Anti-Corruption Fight Fund, continue to publish facts. Find where Putin, his circle, relatives, put the stolen money.. tvrain.ru/teleshow/video…
2/...investigate all these United Russia ministers, publish, urge everyone else to distribute...I am fighting, yes, for to change the government in the country. I do not want these people to sit in the Kremlin, they have been sitting there for decades...
3/... I believe that they are thieves, I ask you to make donations to us so that we can investigate the activities of these thieves. And at each new court session, I will even tell with pleasure, let's call it a campaign of court donations...
Some thoughts on what's likely to come next in Russia after Navalny is thankfully getting SOME treatment:
Yes, he has been finally given access to (likely ill-equipped) civilian doctors, leading to the end of his hunger strike.
BUT, here are the realities that lie ahead.. (1/10)
Expect suppression of Navalny's colleagues and supporters at its highest level yet. In labeling them "extremists", officials have legal authority to treat them as terrorists. Early previews include colleagues who have been beaten, jailed for NO reason, and threatened. (2/10)
Expect further suppression of independent media (who have done incredible investigative work). Just today, authorities designated @meduzaproject as a "foreign agent", which makes it that much harder for their work to continue. (3/10)