A short thread on Crude again. Aside from the jokes about filling your tanks now (really solves nothing), the problem with crude is not that retail prices will rise at $115. That is happening worldwide. 1/n #Crude#PriceHike#inflation
The problem is that 1. Election tactics will squeeze a very large increase into a very short window causing stress to people 2. What have we done with policy? Last time crude was $100, then RBI head Raghuram Rajan suggested deregulating diesel - nothing done . 2/n #Crude
3. Despite all our chest thumping, domestic oil production has been DECLINING.India’s crude oil production fell by 5.2 % and natural gas production by 8.1 % in FY21 . Ageing wells, not enough tech upgrade, no change in policies like cess. #Crude#PriceHike#inflation
4. Even something basic like bringing ATF under GST has been discussed till the cows come home, with no outcome. #Crude#PriceHike#inflation
5. Fix your roof when the sun shines, not when it's pouring down. Hitting people with large price hikes, tweaking excise duties are not long term solutions. Truth is, India squandered the last few years & the opportunity low crude rates gave us/end of thread #Crude#PriceHike
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Quick thread on 2022, Ukraine and India
Q: Why does it feel like everything's falling apart since Ukraine ?
A: Things were already pretty bruised. Ukraine has ripped the band-aid off 1/n
Inflation is now a full-blown problem. Estimates indicate that EVEN if the central government were to cut fuel taxes average CPI inflation for FY’23 could shoot past the RBI’s plimsol line of 6.0%. #inflation#Crude#India#UkraineRussianWar
Growth is now also in question. ICRA sees “large downside risks” to its 8% GDP target. Nomura says there’s downside risks to their GDP growth outlook (7% for 2022), HDFC’s GDP growth forecast might see a further downward revision to 7.3-7.5%. #India#CrudeOil#Growth#Ukraine️
A thread on my piece on the RBI. Full story link here:
But the central ( pun unintended) question here is, what should the Reserve Bank be doing in this environment, and is it doing what it should/could ? 1/n #inflation#RBI#UkraineRussianWar#CrudeOil scroll.in/article/101869…
Last RBI meeting saw inflation being termed as not a big worry and that action will be taken when necessary. Let’s examine what has happened with some of the elements that add to the inflation/ cost pressures of a household 2/n #inflation#RBI#UkraineRussianWar#CrudeOil
Nomura says we've had high inflation for 2 years already. Retail fuel prices are on freeze since Nov'21 thanks to state elections. A recalibration means upping petrol/diesel prices by at least 10%, 30% plus price hike for LPG. 3/n #inflation#RBI#UkraineRussianWar#CrudeOil
A thread on my piece around fuel price hikes. Come 10th March, sharp fuel price hikes are coming. How sharp ? $1 increase in Crude leads to a 50 – 60 paisa/ litre increase in retail fuel prices. Total increase could be as high as Rs 10/ litre. 1/7 scroll.in/article/101748…
Govt & Oil Companies say they're protecting consumers. Guess what ? April '20 -Crude fell as low as $9.12/ barrel. What did Oil firms do ? Stopped price revisions for *82 days*. In May 21, we saw 16 fuel price hikes. Consumers were hit by no benefit & then record high prices 2/7
Any relief ? Yes. In November last year, a sizeable Rs 5/ltr cut in excise duty on petrol and a Rs 10/ltr cut in excise duty on diesel. But fuel earnings for the Govt have been frankly, great - A robust ₹ 4 lakh crores this year and ₹3.35 lakh crores project next year. 3/ 7