I have seen 1992, 2000 and 2008. Post 2008 , we have not seen any form of Global Financial Crisis. If you have entered markets post 2010 , you have not seen a true bear market. The 2020 covid dip and rise ( fuelled by QE) was not a bear market.
I strongly suggest one studies the earlier bear markets on charts, analyse the then economic and socio political scenario before taking any decision. Not all dips needs to be bought , beware of trying to catch a falling knife. Remember Japan 1991
Buyers will get numerous opportunities. Wait for some form of reversal signal, buy 5-10-15% above to be safe. More money had been lost trying to catch a bottom.
Rest your choice. I honestly shared what I feel 🙏
Twitter gives a fascinating glimpse of behavioral finance on based on majority retail traders. The common consensus seems to be that they could not get in during the covid downspike due to fear, so this time majority will fearlessly buy the dip.
Markets rarely rewards the consensus view. One has to think totally different in order to make money.
This fearlessness in buying the dip is what is making me nervous
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
A bit drunk. But need to get this off my chest publicly.
A few months back a large trader came to kolkata. Wanted to speak to me personally regarding some trading issues ( not models or methods, mainly psychology). He was a student of mine a few years back.
We spoke, issues I am not at liberty to discuss. Suggested some pointers.
What I noticed was his size, probably 20-50 times more than mine.
Being from a middle class family, a school teacher mother and the experience of blowing up earlier, I was obsessed / fanatical about risk mgmt
So my size was small/managable at a max 0.25% max risk of my capital at any given trade
COI suggests positions still in the system, options positions have increased yesterday
BNF :
Expecting resistance to come in between 38300-400 region
Support at 37600
Nifty fut= Resistance 17350-400 region
Support at 17150
Until BNF closes above 38750 by end of day closing and NF closes above 17500 by end of day closing, will not be looking at the indices as strongly bullish
The most common problem faced by day-traders and it's easy solution which is extremely difficult to implement.
A thread.
( uses concepts I have discussed many times before in separate threads)
Problem : I have a good system, I understand charts and/or price action, but I simply can't make money. I hold my losses too long or ( this is most common) I get out of profitable positions too fast and cannot sit for the whole move
At many firms at NASDAQ, day-traders are seen as elite sportspersons playing in a difficult taxing game. That's why, they have regular sessions with sports psychologists. They are advised to follow the basic routine of sportspersons.
Train ---- Play tournaments --- Rest
BNF showing long liquidation while NF showing long buildup. In my experience, whenever the two indices shows divergent behavior, it's very difficult to cleanly trade the indices. We are probably starting a time-price correction
Traders will do best if they let this scenario resolve over the next few days before trying to trade the next trend move. Everyone makes money in a trending move but majority give back during this congested times. So, I will stand aside and give time to markets .
Some excellent responses to this thread on how people manage risk. Let me outline my process. I will write it step by step, break it down and explain my logic. Not necessarily these are iron rules, feel free to understand and then add/modify what suits you.
So let's repeat the scenario again. You are with an overnight position, the market opens huge against you ( long or short does not matter). What do you do then?
Step 1 : start the relaxation technique as outlined in earlier thread.
Now these are your choices : 1. Double the position, averaging with hope that a slight favourable move will reduce your losses 2. Totally reverse the position, say from long to short 3. Cut the full position 4. Cut half ( "when in doubt, cut half position ") 5. Keep holding