Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
Mar 7 6 tweets 1 min read
#Ukraine_EU: MFA Kuleba has made several harsh (not really diplomatic) comments towards Moldova and Georgia: 1) He said that the two countries want to use the Ukrainian campaigning for EU membership to advance their cases ⤵️
(they want to "join their two cars at a high-speed Ukrainian train heading to Brussels) Kuleba insists that the EU must separate Ukraine's application for the state candidate from those of Moldova and Georgia; 2) Another point on which Kuleba slammed Chisinau and Tbilisi is ⤵️
the policy of not alignment to sanctions against Russia. He expressed his disappointment and stressed that such positions have nothing to do with the association under the "Associated Trio" platform. ⤵️
Kuleba's criticism is a cold shower for the EU, Georgia and Moldova, which have a "package approach" to membership candidacy.
Moldova hoped to escape criticism for not adopting sanctions against Russia by applying for candidate status to the EU. Now he was criticized by Kyiv both for that and for the non-alignment on sanctions. A similar negative attitude of Kyiv is projected on Georgia.⤵️
However, regardless of this criticism, Ukraine appreciates the solidarity expressed in other aspects, including refugee-related issues.

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More from @DionisCenusa

Mar 10
#Russia_Sanctions: The pro-Kremlin organization “Public Consumer Initiative” drafted an anti-sanctions list of Western companies that closed their businesses in Russia. Against them it is proposed to apply 3 types of measures: asset freezing, external governance or⤵️
nationalization. The initiative is not transposed into law. According to the authors, the prosecution will have to enforce it. The list will be completed with the names of new companies coming out of Russia. At this point, the initiative refers to 59 companies, including⤵️
Volkswagen, Apple, IKEA, Microsoft, Shell, McDonald's, Porsche, Toyota, H&M, etc. The Russian side claims that these companies made commitments to the Russian state, labor, customers, etc. , which is worth 40 billion euros.
Read 4 tweets
Mar 9
#Russia_War: The Ukrainian authorities are organizing the evacuation from Odesa by train (towards Ismail) to Romania under ship control (the port city of Tulcea). This means that the Russian forces are advancing in the direction of Odessa or planning to mount airstrikes ⤵️
(which will cause destruction of the city that Russia would like to avoid because of the significance of Odesa to the "русский мир"). In any case, if Odessa falls under Russian occupation then they reach the Transnistria region (Moldova). This in no way means that ⤵️
Russia wants to invade Moldova (as some analysts insist). The most that can happen is that the Russian forces in Ukraine receive some support from Transnistria or even enter the separatist region if necessary. Yesterday, in a conversation with a Swiss journalist, I explained ⤵️
Read 8 tweets
Mar 9
#Russia_War: The scale of destruction of the Russian invasion of Ukraine indicates that Moscow is deliberately incurring massive costs for the future reconstruction of Ukraine. In addition, it makes it inhospitable by causing the depopulation of the destroyed areas. ⤵️
The effects may be far from just demographic changes if the refugee flows reach the estimated 5 million people or even higher. This will put anti-corruption reform and other structural reforms in the background. Consequently, democratic institutions can also take a hit. ⤵️
Putin knows that very well. As Zakharova confessed, Russia is not interested in changing the ruling forces in Ukraine (any longer). If this can be trusted, then Russia's approach is to occupy the south, where possible, and destroy the urban areas of northeastern Ukraine. ⤵️
Read 5 tweets
Mar 9
#Russia: The Central Bank introduced limitations on commercial banks to sell foreign currency to the population for 5 months from May 9. In the same period, the population will be able to withdraw up to 10k dollars from each of the accounts opened in any of the Russian banks.⤵️
Amounts above this threshold will be issued in rubles at the existing exchange rate (ie a highly valued ruble). It is worth remembering that the main Russian airlines suspended international flights from March 8. However, the media reported that Russian citizens are flocking to⤵️
Armenia, Georgia and other countries near Russian borders, are likely to avoid the fallout from Western sanctions. However, ⤵️
Read 4 tweets
Mar 9
#Russia_Sanctions: The "yuanization" of Russian banking operations is inevitable. Banks plan to issue loans in yuan. Due to the low circulation of Chinese currency at the moment, customers will still use rubles. At this time there is no mechanism to make customer payments and ⤵️
transfers in yuan in the national banking system. If consumer demand grows, banking authorities will give the yuan a leading role as payment currency, replacing the dollar. This comes as a result of ongoing "de-dollarization" under the sanctions ⤵️
for the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Russia is already using the Chinese international payment system UnionPay to replace Visa and MasterCard which have suspended operations for Russian customers.
Read 4 tweets
Mar 7
#Ukraine_Refugees: The EU has revised its estimates of the expected number of Ukrainian refugees. The figures will be double what was previously estimated and may reach up to 5 million people. This is almost 12% of the Ukrainian population and 5 times more than during ⤵️
the 2015 refugee crisis. The refugee crises orchestrated last year by the Lukashenko regime on the border with Lithuania and Poland seem nothing compared to the exodus of the Ukrainian population driven by Russian military aggression. Moscow is trying to get some of these ⤵️
flows to Belarus and Russia by offering six "green corridors" with exits to the east. It seems that Russia competes for the Ukrainian population that is currently fleeing to the West.
Read 6 tweets

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