.@KofmanMichael on @WarOnTheRocks podcast today points to "increasingly more complex [air] operations" by Russia & says that its sparing use of precision munitions might be down not to low stocks but that "Russian military is likely afraid this will escalate into a regional war"
"We've seen them [PGMs] use quite a bit in Syria...there's a sizeable chance that the stockpile they have—both satellite or laser guided PGMS—is largely being reserved for either later on this conflict, or more specifically for [the] potential of having to deal with NATO forces."
.@KofmanMichael: "we're learning some things about the Russian military that we definitely overestimated. But on the other hand I have big worries because we always swing to analytical extremes in our community. ...this war so far, it has strong 1939-1940 Winter War vibes"
.@KofmanMichael: "you definitely don't want to end up where Germany ended up: looking at Soviet performance in 1939-1940 [in Finland] and thinking that this whole thing is a rotten barn, and all you have to do is kick the door down and the thing will collapse"
"Cities like Kharkiv take a lot of units, they're going to have a very hard time blockading them. [They] can hold out for quite a while...that being said they are making progress towards steady envelopment of some of these major cities...This war is very much still undecided."
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