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Feb 27 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
Jaw-dropping. Borrell says EU military package may include "supplying fighter jets" for Ukraine's air force, EU has spoken w/ Ukrainian foreign minister "about the type of jets the Ukrainian military needs" & there are "member states...able to supply them" bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
"Mr. Borrell said Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba has asked for jet fighters that his country’s air force can operate. Those planes would be Soviet-built models, mainly MiG and Sukhoi jets." wsj.com/livecoverage/r…
To be honest I find it hard to imagine how EU is going to get fighter jets to Ukraine in a relevant time-frame, how Ukraine would train the necessary pilots, and how a fleet would survive Russian strikes over time. Europeans certainly not going to allow sorties from NATO soil.
Yep.
This makes sense. But depends on securing enough territory in western Ukraine and probably having hardened shelters.
Someone points out to me that Slovakia decided a few days ago to accelerate the phasing out of its MiG-29s (were meant to last to next near) because it didn’t want dependence on Russian technicians to maintain them. Opportunity there. tvnoviny.sk/domace/clanok/…
Seems this would not be an EU package but by member states. Bloomberg may have over-egged it.
No, it was not over-egged. EU says explicitly that "Peace Facility" funds will go to help Ukraine "buy" fighter jets. A really remarkable moment.
🤷🏽

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Shashank Joshi Profile picture
Feb 26
My thoughts on day three, with a focus on the urban warfare that likely lies ahead. "The scale of fighting in Kyiv could compare to Grozny, warns @antbruceking, referring to the terrible damage that befell the Chechen capital—a far smaller city than Kyiv" economist.com/europe/2022/02…
"Even Western armed forces with air superiority, large stocks of precision munitions & greater sensitivity to civilian casualties have inflicted enormous damage to cities." In Mosul in 2015-16 over 10,000 civilians were killed & huge refugee flows. economist.com/europe/2022/02…
'All of this bodes ill for Kyiv and its inhabitants. Yesterday Putin accused Ukrainian “neo-Nazis” of placing heavy weapons in the centre of Kyiv and Kharkiv, “acting in the same way that terrorists act all over the world—using people as shields”.' economist.com/europe/2022/02…
Read 4 tweets
Shashank Joshi Profile picture
Feb 24
Russia's armed forces will now be entrenched in Belarus and Ukraine for a while. One of the major questions that the US and Europe will have to ask is how far they revise their baseline assumptions about Putin's aims and risk-appetite beyond Ukraine, including towards NATO.
The costs, consequences and risks of attacking Ukraine, though epically high, are less than those of attacking NATO territory—an alliance with a mutual-defence clause and three nuclear-armed members. But there is going to be some serious stock-taking now.
Remember that NATO is currently working on its next strategic concept, which sets out its strategy. EU "strategic compass" due soon. US working on national security strategy and nuclear posture review. All these documents will be profoundly affected by Russia's invasion.
Read 7 tweets
Shashank Joshi Profile picture
Feb 23
Remember: US intel officials had it right on Dec 3rd. To much eye-rolling, they warned @washingtonpost that Russia would gather 100 BTGs & 1750,000 personnel. They were right (in fact numbers are higher). They also predicted a "a multi-front offensive". washingtonpost.com/national-secur…
Recall that Bill Burns went to Moscow in early Nov 21. It suggests US IC might have had the plans then. "Assessments on Russia's motives differ widely within the admin, with some sources telling CNN they believe Russia could be preparing for an invasion"
edition.cnn.com/2021/11/05/pol…
In fact NYT just reported they indeed have the plans then. Putin "was preparing to invade Ukraine, top intelligence and military officials told Mr. Biden"—in October. nytimes.com/2022/02/21/us/… via @CherylRofer
Read 5 tweets
Shashank Joshi Profile picture
Feb 21
Western official: Over 110 BTGs now on border with "number still in transit". Two-thirds within 50km of Ukraine border. A significant number have moved closer since Thurs. Of those within 50km range, around half are now "tactically deployed"—moving out into tactical formation.
Western official: Russian armed forces going from "postured from military operations to being poised for military operations". All the indications we see are for a large-scale invasion using multiple axes, with a series of objectives.
Western officials: "there are elements within the military and Russian security services who have a very serious doubts about the plan to invade, and its effectiveness and tactical and strategic wisdom, to put it mildly."
Read 4 tweets
Shashank Joshi Profile picture
Feb 20
Some lofty language from the Elysee. “Intense diplomatic work will be undertaken "in order to achieve, if the conditions are met, a meeting at the highest level to define a new order of peace and security in Europe," adds the French Presidency” lemonde.fr/international/…
The original: ‘Un travail diplomatique intense va être engagé « afin d’aboutir, si les conditions sont remplies, à une rencontre au plus haut niveau en vue de définir un nouvel ordre de paix et de sécurité en Europe », ajoute la présidence française’ lemonde.fr/international/…
Full context: "this diplomatic work should make it possible to progress on basis of the latest exchanges [with] all the stakeholders (Europeans, allies, Russians & Ukrainians) in order to achieve, if conditions are met, a meeting at the highest level..."
elysee.fr/emmanuel-macro…
Read 6 tweets
Shashank Joshi Profile picture
Feb 20
‘’Asked whether a Russian invasion is still thought to be imminent, Mr Johnson said: "I'm afraid that that is what the evidence points to, there's no burnishing it. "The fact is that all the signs are that the plan has already in some senses begun."…’ bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politi…
‘"I'm afraid to say that the plan we are seeing is for something that could be really the biggest war in Europe since 1945 just in terms of sheer scale," the prime minister said.’ bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politi…
‘Intelligence suggests Russia intends to launch an invasion that will encircle Ukrainian capital Kyiv, Mr Johnson said.
"People need to understand the sheer cost in human life that could entail," he said.’ bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politi…
Read 9 tweets

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