#armchairgeneral - logistics, railways and Russian failure.
The problem with the logistics argument is the absence of facts. The heavy ordinance landing on Ukrainian cities proves: either forward depots or stacked loads. Greater issue can the Ukrainians remain supplied?
The problem with the logistics argument is the absence of facts. The heavy ordinance landing on Ukrainian cities proves: either forward depots or stacked loads. Greater issue can the Ukrainians remain supplied?
In regards to the railways argument, there are parallels to WW2. Without constant interdiction, the railways keep rolling. With declining air space and layers of Russian AA defences, the chance of interdiction is reducing daily.
Russia’s war machine - err - maybe if Russia switches off the fuel supply the western world’s economies will wobble very badly. Impoverishment of nations through energy prices and inflation will seriously undermine the western capability to resist/confront Putin.
Over one million civilians have flooded into Western Europe. Pressures of the war are now unsettling the western powers. NATO is in deep defence deficit and probably cannot support Ukraine even if it wanted to, and therefore has to let it go.
Has Russia worn out its reserves or is it employing sub-standard equipment as Ukrainian defence declines? Cruise missiles, bombardments and kill squads are making life increasingly intolerable. Remember the maskirovka.
Stress, fatigue and attrition. As mentioned yesterday we are beyond the point when defenders begin to suffer serious stress and breakdown. Increasing Intel is informing Ukrainian losses. The reality is a Ukrainian sword close to snapping.
While we all want the Ukraine to succeed, the collapse is inevitable. Why? The scale of destruction will seriously hinder reconstruction, and will serve as a platform for future war even if a ceasefire is imposed this week. The war narrative is written in stone.
In 2 years NATO will still not be fully recovered from 40 years of complacency. If there is another round of Putin war, NATO will still not be able to confront Russia. We’re in a delicate situation since western reserves are totally denuded and defences below benchmarks.
The lesson is how the west has been harmed by foolish strategies, fanciful logic about defence and incoherent governance. Maybe the sacrifice of Kyiv will be the west’s Thermopylae, but institutional corruption runs very deep. Rotten states have undermined western democracy.
We are in a very dark place. Putin is close to switching off the lights of Europe. Time for innovative strategic thinking.
The fronts are beginning to join up and areas encircled - Kyiv is critical. 
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