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Iván Ramírez de Arellano, The Jomini of the West Profile picture
@JominiW
Mar 8, 2022 • 15 tweets • 6 min read • Read on X
1/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 12: Russian offensive actions remain contained to east and south Ukraine as they continue to build forces around Kyiv for renewed operations. Ukrainian forces target vulnerable Russian supply lines. #UkraineUnderAttaсk #UkraineRussiaWar #Ukraine Image
2/ Humanitarian Impact. UN sources report 1.7 million refugees have fled Ukraine. Social media posting continues to confirm the increased indiscriminate of civilians and civilian infrastructure to deliberately cause human suffering to force surrender.
3/ Weather assessment. In Kyiv cloudy skies and snow showers continue for the next 24-48 hours. In the east snow will continue through Friday. In the south in cloudy skies are expected for the week. This impedes accurate OSINT collection and aerial sorties.
4/ Kyiv AO assessment is detailed in this chart. Key take away, Russian forces continued preparations to resume a general offensive against west and east Kyiv. The Ukrainian military has begun incorporating foreign volunteers into defensive units in NW Kyiv. #kyivUkraine #KyivNow Image
5/ Northeast AO assessment is detailed in this chart. Key take away, Ukrainian forces, primarily Territorial Defense units, have been highly successful in ambushing Russian supply convoys and depots along exposed supply routes, impeding a Russian advance into east Kyiv. #Sumy Image
6/ Kharkiv & Donbas AO assessments are detailed in this chart. Key take away, forces along Russia’s numerous axes of advance are not strong enough to cause a single catastrophic reversal of fortune, collectively they threaten to break the Ukrainian defensive line. #Kharkhiv Image
7/ The Southern Theater assessment is detailed in this chart. Key take away, Ukrainians hold Mariupol. Ukrainian forces will continue defense of Mikolaiyv. Anticipate Ukrainian forces to stabilize the Zaporizhzhia defensive line over a counterattack toward Mariupol. #Mykolaiv Image
8/ Aerospace Assessment. U.S. Defense officials state the VKS (Russian Aerospace Forces) have launched to date 625 missile strikes against targets in Ukraine. Poor weather is forcing the VKS to conduct more high-risk day-time sorties.
9/ The Ukrainian Air Force retains most of its fixed-wing fleet according to US reports. Ukrainian MANPADS are the primary threat for VKS fixed-wing sorties. The VKS still remains ineffective in planning a comprehensive operation to gain air superiority.
10/ Information War. The Ukrainian military and national leadership continue to dominate the information sphere of the war, effectively influencing Western public opinion and leaders to increase support of their war effort.
11/ Russia will remain largely ineffective in the information sphere, as its target audience is domestic with the intent of suppressing internal dissent. What is important to remember is what is not being reported, namely Russian successes on the ground.
12/ Russian Overall Assessment. The Russians will more than likely continue to make limited advances and attacks to set conditions for a significant exploitation at weakened points of the forward line. Kyiv remains the main effort, but the Donbas may yield the biggest gains.
13/ Ukrainian Overall Assessment. The Ukrainian military still controls key points of communication and continues to contest control of its airspace with the VKS. It is unclear how much of an operational reserve remains uncommitted, but more of it will be pressed into the east.
14/ These updates have been aggregated from various OSINT sources, official Ukrainian government statements, media reports (i.e., AP News, Reuters), and American think tank reports. Daily reports will continue, major weekly assessments / analysis forthcoming.
15/ These maps have been created by me based off the most reliable information of activity in the Ukrainian Theater of War. Errors will be corrected as soon as they are identified.

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More from @JominiW

Iván Ramírez de Arellano, The Jomini of the West Profile picture
Sep 18
1/ Ukraine TVD, Day 935: As of 16 September, the VSRF retains the strategic initiative and positive operational momentum throughout the Ukrainian TVD. The ZSU continues efforts to expand the Kursk lodgment, with Russian ground forces conducting a counterattack in the Korenevo area. OGV Sever offensive actions, through reduced in scale, maintain the ability to fix a significant number of Ukrainian forces in the Kharkiv region. In the Donbas elements of the 2GCAA have slowed their advance on Pokrovsk for logistical resupply, with the 201MRD attacking through the operational flank of OSUV Tavriya south of the M30 highway. In Zaporizhzhia, elements of OSV Tsentr and Vostok have renewed offensive action in the Vuhledar area, pressing hard for Bohoiavlenka. The VKS stepped up strikes on Ukraine's energy grid while the PSU continues large drone strikes targeting fuel and energy complex facilities in the Moscow region. #UkraineRussiaWar️️ #UkraineWarNews #UkraineFrontLines #RussianArmy #UkraineNeverSurrenders #RussiaImage
2/ Current weather outlook for the Ukraine TVD. Weather will not significantly impact ongoing operations. Weather favors offensive action. Courtesy of @davidhelms570
3/ Operational Terms. To assist in easy of comprehension of the threads graphics, here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions. (note: I am still refining and updating this list, please bear with me as I do, thank you).


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Read 17 tweets
Iván Ramírez de Arellano, The Jomini of the West Profile picture
Sep 4
1/ Ukraine TVD, Day 921: As of 02 September, the VSRF retains the strategic initiative and positive operational momentum throughout the Ukrainian TVD. The ZSU continues efforts to expand the Kursk lodgment, with Russian ground forces attempting to push Ukrainian troops from Korenevo. OGV Sever offensive actions, through reduced in scale, maintain the ability to fix a significant number of Ukrainian forces in the Kharkiv region. In the Donbas elements of the 90GTD, 27GMRD, and 201MRD carry on their advance towards Pokrovsk, with the 201MRD now threatening the operational flank of OSUV Tavriya south of the M30 highway. In Zaporizhzhia, OSV Vostok appears to be preparing for offensive action in the Vuhledararea. The VKS stepped up strikes on Ukraine's energy grid while the PSU conducted a large drone strike targeting fuel and energy complex facilities in the Moscow region. #UkraineRussiaWar️️ #UkraineFrontLines #RussianArmy #UkraineNeverSurrenders #RussiaImage
2/ Current weather outlook for the Ukraine TVD. Weather will not significantly impact ongoing operations. Weather favors offensive action. Courtesy of @davidhelms570
3/ Operational Terms. To assist in easy of comprehension of the threads graphics, here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions. (note: I am still refining and updating this list, please bear with me as I do, thank you).


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Read 10 tweets
Iván Ramírez de Arellano, The Jomini of the West Profile picture
Apr 7, 2023
1/ Ukraine TVD, 20 FEB-07 APR 23. The past 7 weeks saw a continuation of the Russian Winter Offensive as major pushes continued in Kreminna, Bakhmut, and Avdiivka. Russia made important gains, Ukrainian defenses continue to hold. #UkraineRussiaWar #RussianArmy #UkraineFrontLines Image
2/ Current weather outlook for the Ukraine TVD. The mud season will continue to impede maneuver, especially in severely restricted terrain. The weather favors small-scale assault forces. Night operations will continue to be difficult.
3/ Operational Terms. To assist in easy of comprehension of the threads graphics, here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions. (note: I am still refining and updating this list, please bear with me as I do, thank you). ImageImageImageImage
Read 17 tweets
Iván Ramírez de Arellano, The Jomini of the West Profile picture
Feb 22, 2023
1/ Ukraine TVD, 8-19 FEB 23. The past 2 weeks of February saw the Russian Winter Offensive intensify as major pushes continued in Kreminna, Bakhmut, and Vuhledar. Russian made few gains, Ukrainian defenses continue to hold. #UkraineRussiaWar #RussianArmy #UkraineFrontLines
2/ Operational Terms. To assist in easy of comprehension of the threads graphics, here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions. (note: I am still refining and updating this list, please bear with me as I do, thank you).
3/ Luhansk OD. Russian forces press their attack in the Kreminna area. Svatove has been reinforced by the 98th GABD, signaling a Russian intent to push toward Kupyansk soon. UKR forces will continue to defend in depth & transition to the offense when opportunities arise. #Luhansk
Read 14 tweets
Iván Ramírez de Arellano, The Jomini of the West Profile picture
Feb 10, 2023
1/ Ukraine TVD, 1-7 FEB 23. The first week of February saw the Russian Winter Offensive move into full swing as major pushes were made in Kreminna, Bakhmut, and Vuhledar. The Russians made some gains but Ukrainian defenses held. #UkraineRussiaWar #RussianArmy #UkraineFrontLines Image
2/ Operational Terms. To assist in easy of comprehension of the threads graphics, here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions. (note: I am still refining and updating this list, please bear with me as I do, thank you). ImageImageImageImage
3/ Luhansk OD. Svatove remains a critical pivot of operations for both sides. Action over the past week did not see major changes to the line of contact north of Novovodyane. To the south the Russians launched a sustained offensive out of Kreminna towards Yampolivka. #Luhansk Image
Read 16 tweets
Iván Ramírez de Arellano, The Jomini of the West Profile picture
Feb 1, 2023
1/ Ukraine TVD, 1-31 JAN 23. The first month of 2023 saw a determined effort by the VSRF to finally seize control of Bakhmut in central Donetsk, blunt ZSU advances in Luhansk, and expand territorial control in Zaporizhzhia. #UkraineRussiaWar #RussianArmy #UkraineFrontLines
2/ Operational Terms. To assist in easy of comprehension of the threads graphics, here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions.
3/ Luhansk OD. This OD remains an important disruption zone for Russian & Ukrainian forces. For the ZSU, the Luhansk OD still presents the best opportunity for victory in the Donbas. Expect continued Ukrainian efforts to liberate Svatove. #Luhansk
Read 13 tweets

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