Thread by @JominiW

1/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 12: Russian offensive actions remain contained to east and south Ukraine as they continue to build forces around Kyiv for renewed operations. Ukrainian forces target vulnerable Russian supply lines. #UkraineUnderAttaсk #UkraineRussiaWar #Ukraine

2/ Humanitarian Impact. UN sources report 1.7 million refugees have fled Ukraine. Social media posting continues to confirm the increased indiscriminate of civilians and civilian infrastructure to deliberately cause human suffering to force surrender.

https://twitter.com/MollyJongFast/status/1501011156663685129?s=20&t=nR3LNNk5uyOXntUoPJqS4w

3/ Weather assessment. In Kyiv cloudy skies and snow showers continue for the next 24-48 hours. In the east snow will continue through Friday. In the south in cloudy skies are expected for the week. This impedes accurate OSINT collection and aerial sorties.

4/ Kyiv AO assessment is detailed in this chart. Key take away, Russian forces continued preparations to resume a general offensive against west and east Kyiv. The Ukrainian military has begun incorporating foreign volunteers into defensive units in NW Kyiv. #kyivUkraine #KyivNow

5/ Northeast AO assessment is detailed in this chart. Key take away, Ukrainian forces, primarily Territorial Defense units, have been highly successful in ambushing Russian supply convoys and depots along exposed supply routes, impeding a Russian advance into east Kyiv. #Sumy

6/ Kharkiv & Donbas AO assessments are detailed in this chart. Key take away, forces along Russia’s numerous axes of advance are not strong enough to cause a single catastrophic reversal of fortune, collectively they threaten to break the Ukrainian defensive line. #Kharkhiv

7/ The Southern Theater assessment is detailed in this chart. Key take away, Ukrainians hold Mariupol. Ukrainian forces will continue defense of Mikolaiyv. Anticipate Ukrainian forces to stabilize the Zaporizhzhia defensive line over a counterattack toward Mariupol. #Mykolaiv

8/ Aerospace Assessment. U.S. Defense officials state the VKS (Russian Aerospace Forces) have launched to date 625 missile strikes against targets in Ukraine. Poor weather is forcing the VKS to conduct more high-risk day-time sorties.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1500590657286688775?s=20&t=xygCbauL6OIbV-2cu_5nFQ

9/ The Ukrainian Air Force retains most of its fixed-wing fleet according to US reports. Ukrainian MANPADS are the primary threat for VKS fixed-wing sorties. The VKS still remains ineffective in planning a comprehensive operation to gain air superiority.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1500547053528788995?s=20&t=xygCbauL6OIbV-2cu_5nFQ

10/ Information War. The Ukrainian military and national leadership continue to dominate the information sphere of the war, effectively influencing Western public opinion and leaders to increase support of their war effort.

https://twitter.com/lapatina_/status/1500903791603900424?s=20&t=nR3LNNk5uyOXntUoPJqS4w

11/ Russia will remain largely ineffective in the information sphere, as its target audience is domestic with the intent of suppressing internal dissent. What is important to remember is what is not being reported, namely Russian successes on the ground.

https://twitter.com/ArmedForcesUkr/status/1500722512971415553?s=20&t=xygCbauL6OIbV-2cu_5nFQ

12/ Russian Overall Assessment. The Russians will more than likely continue to make limited advances and attacks to set conditions for a significant exploitation at weakened points of the forward line. Kyiv remains the main effort, but the Donbas may yield the biggest gains.

13/ Ukrainian Overall Assessment. The Ukrainian military still controls key points of communication and continues to contest control of its airspace with the VKS. It is unclear how much of an operational reserve remains uncommitted, but more of it will be pressed into the east.

14/ These updates have been aggregated from various OSINT sources, official Ukrainian government statements, media reports (i.e., AP News, Reuters), and American think tank reports. Daily reports will continue, major weekly assessments / analysis forthcoming.

15/ These maps have been created by me based off the most reliable information of activity in the Ukrainian Theater of War. Errors will be corrected as soon as they are identified.