Read this painful piece about the crushing of a generation in Russia and beyond."In late 2000s, we drifting 20somethings took freedom for granted...Never realising we were living in low-key golden era: a time when things were more or less open..."@b_judahunherd.com/2022/03/the-ru…
and then read my piece from a few months ago in @TheAtlantic about the stunningly rapid loss of freedom and the erasure of progress achieved since the end of Cold War in Lebanon Hong Kong and Afghanistan over the course of just two years.
"Afghans, Hong Kongers, and Lebanese are all victims today of a form of authoritarian intolerance. The specifics are different for each, but the dislocation within them is perhaps the most visible expression of the disappearance of a world born out of the heady days of the 1990s"
"In these places, people feel betrayed by their leaders, the world, the West, by their own optimism even as they watch, stunned, the erasure of the life they thought possible after decades of progress—imperfect and uneven progress, but progress nonetheless."
I did not expect to add Russia so quickly-- and of course Ukraine-- the physical destruction of Ukraine and the crushing of the hopes of Russian youth. @b_judah writes "Because that Moscow I knew — nocturnal, daring, drunk — has finally been destroyed completely."
I try to stay hopeful and realistic. I ended my piece with this: 1 day, the (Berlin) wall fell.And there was opportunity for new world...we were naive about inevitability of victory of liberal values.We must learn from mistakes,work to stop more walls from going up, stop darkness
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A must read by @gcaw on #SaudiArabia and #MBS who has been hiding from public view for 2 yrs.
"He has.. created a climate of fear unprecedented in Saudi history... "When he’s King Mohammed, Crown Prince MBS is going to be remembered as an angel.”
Several layers to this story: the seeming inevitability of MbS accession to throne and the ruthlessness with which he rules=> how do saudis deal with it, how should the outside world deal with it?
The real changes MbS has ushered in KSA which we cannot deny and which have changed the lives of the young generation. => there is deep fear, many are in jail, tortured, but for thousands, if not millions, the new sense of freedom is welcome and long overdue. Is it a mirage?
THREAD-Big. Not just meeting but Israel making it public via sources. Bibi did not cfm nor deny. Saudis wont confirm but hard to deny now There’ve been secret meetings before, coordinating on security/Iran. So why make this public in what was prob coordinated move? Clear msg.
There may have been talk of mil ops ahead of Jan 20. But 1 of KEY objectives for MbS is to fend off pressure from Congress, new Biden admin. Hostility comes from R’s+D’s (Yemen, Khashoggi) Biden said no more blank checks. MbS needs to secure his position, become indispensable
Short of public meetings/peace agrmnt, even dangling prospect of ties w/Israel will go long way to buy breathing space and welcome back from the cold.
2nd objective: help maintain anti-Iran camp and get ahead of any moves by Biden on engaging Iran by shaping facts on ground.
THREAD: many in Lebanon were expecting drama of high profile indictment like Milosevic trial, this was never going to be the case. Tho it acquitted 3 defendants, @STLebanon found 4th guilty. Remember the tribunal had no mandate to prosecute states or parties.
But UN tribunal has now determined beyond doubt that key operative in Hezbollah, a highly centralized political group/militant org, was guilty in plot to assassinate former premier Rafiq Hariri in 05, a politically motivated plot that wud benefit Hezb and patrons in Damascus.
If there is no direct evidence that leadership of Hezbollah and Syria gave orders it doesn’t mean they are innocent just that the evidence of guilt was not there partly because tribunal was limited to individuals.
1 THREAD: Middle East waking up to incredible news of Qassem Suleimani's killing in US strike in Iraq, at Baghdad airport. He had reportedly just flown back from Beirut. He was like a Middle East viceroy, trotting around region, giving orders, masterminding small and large ops
2 A combination of elation, relief and fear here in the region among people who suffered tremendously from Suleimani's policies, from Lebanon to Syria and Iraq. Elation and relief because he was seen as the evil mastermind of policies of death and destruction...
3 ...propping up bloodthirsty oppressive militias, overseeing a devastating war in Syria, feeding/playing on sectarian hatred, helping crack down on protestors in Iran (2009/2017/2019), Iraq now, and likely more recently helping Hezb to navigate protests in Lebanon.