@TheAtlantic contrib writer. @FT contrib editor. Distinguished fellow @ColumbiaIGP Author: BLACK WAVE on Saudi-Iran rivalry. Top 100 NYT books for 2020. Ex BBC
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Oct 15 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
4 nights of quiet sleep in Beirut...a luxury. How many more? Meanwhile, war rages on in south Lebanon and Bekaa valley... violence as a soundtrack... homes, villages, families destroyed. Displaced Lebanese across country crammed into places of refuge, or sleeping on the street.
Drone is back. Incessant buzz. Headache inducing. 1/4 of Leb is under Israeli evacuation orders. The other 3/4 is trying to survive, function. Many private schools are open again. Public school are refugee centers. People making plans.Cancelling plans.Checking news incessantly
Sep 24 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
For 3 yrs now, I've been researching a book, mostly set in 1980's, revisiting the rise of the PLO in Lebanon, the 1982 Israeli invasion and the birth of Hezbollah. Watching the events unfold over the last year, but esp last few months, from Lebanon, to Israel to Iran...
I keep seeing patterns on repeat and I keep thinking of 2 sentences, one by Israeli journalist and peace activist Amos Oz writing after '82 Israeli invasion of Lebanon: "There can be no atonement for what we did in Beirut."
Aug 4 • 14 tweets • 4 min read
🧵Foreign countries that are calling on their citizens to leave Lebanon shud coordinate w/ airline companies who are cancelling flights+ hiking up prices. Some people want to leave but can't find tickets. Some people want to return to be with family here but are stranded abroad
and yes, some people are trying to come back to Lebanon. Hard to explain but Lebanon's been through so much war, there's a sense of fatalism about it "we've seen it all before". For many Lebanese the reflex is not to leave but to take comfort from being with family and friends.
Jul 28 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Lebanon is bracing for impact tonight. Rumors abound. People's nerves are fraying. My diplomatic sources have denied the French were told by Israelis they would strike southern suburbs of Beirut. Also, no travel advice to French citizens to depart immediately. My analysis 1/
from earlier today holds: no one wants a big war. Israel will look to hit key or high visibility targets either in one heavy night of strikes, or a week of ops. The key is to avoid population centers/civilian casualties and not to trigger a big Hezbollah response and a wider war. Very difficult to calibrate this. High stakes for Leb, region and Biden admin. 2/
Oct 7, 2023 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
*Massive operation/incursion by Hamas inside Israel. V different from anything in past.
*Well planned, must have taken months.
*Must have had outside support - Iran/Hezb.
*Huge intel failure by Israel, caught totally unaware, barley any response in first hours 1/4
All still unfolding.
See this as :
*Iran axis response to Israel normalization talks with Saudi. Also undermines Iran-Saudi normalization
*Palestinian response to worsening/unbearable oppression under occupation. But operation will only make things worse for Pal civilians. 2/4
Aug 13, 2022 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
Appalled and shocked by the attack on #SalmanRushdie. The pen might be mightier than the sword but zealotry and intolerance of all kind seems to trump all. Rushdie once said: “A book is a version of the world. If you do not like it, ignore it; or offer your own version in return”
Ayatollah #Khomeini clearly couldn't live in a world with all sorts of books, even from his grave, his fatwa is a curse, continues to ripple with dangerous effect. Beyond name of attacker, we are still waiting to hear all details of who/what/why/how, but here's some history.
Jul 13, 2022 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
#Thread: Biden just arrived in MidEast, 1st trip since taking office. Re-upping some of my pieces in @TheAtlantic from last year. Despite criticism it's facing, Biden admin is doing reasonably good job, steering, maneuvering, balancing, adjusting where necessary.
Far from perfect but better than critics admit. I don't see Biden disengaging from region, but right-sizing amount of energy any U.S administration devotes to MidEast, long been too much, while at same time inscribing it in wider context, on climate change, food security
Mar 9, 2022 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
A must read by @gcaw on #SaudiArabia and #MBS who has been hiding from public view for 2 yrs.
"He has.. created a climate of fear unprecedented in Saudi history... "When he’s King Mohammed, Crown Prince MBS is going to be remembered as an angel.”
Several layers to this story: the seeming inevitability of MbS accession to throne and the ruthlessness with which he rules=> how do saudis deal with it, how should the outside world deal with it?
Mar 8, 2022 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Read this painful piece about the crushing of a generation in Russia and beyond."In late 2000s, we drifting 20somethings took freedom for granted...Never realising we were living in low-key golden era: a time when things were more or less open..."@b_judahunherd.com/2022/03/the-ru…
and then read my piece from a few months ago in @TheAtlantic about the stunningly rapid loss of freedom and the erasure of progress achieved since the end of Cold War in Lebanon Hong Kong and Afghanistan over the course of just two years.
THREAD-Big. Not just meeting but Israel making it public via sources. Bibi did not cfm nor deny. Saudis wont confirm but hard to deny now There’ve been secret meetings before, coordinating on security/Iran. So why make this public in what was prob coordinated move? Clear msg.
There may have been talk of mil ops ahead of Jan 20. But 1 of KEY objectives for MbS is to fend off pressure from Congress, new Biden admin. Hostility comes from R’s+D’s (Yemen, Khashoggi) Biden said no more blank checks. MbS needs to secure his position, become indispensable
Aug 18, 2020 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
THREAD: many in Lebanon were expecting drama of high profile indictment like Milosevic trial, this was never going to be the case. Tho it acquitted 3 defendants, @STLebanon found 4th guilty. Remember the tribunal had no mandate to prosecute states or parties.
But UN tribunal has now determined beyond doubt that key operative in Hezbollah, a highly centralized political group/militant org, was guilty in plot to assassinate former premier Rafiq Hariri in 05, a politically motivated plot that wud benefit Hezb and patrons in Damascus.
Jan 3, 2020 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
1 THREAD: Middle East waking up to incredible news of Qassem Suleimani's killing in US strike in Iraq, at Baghdad airport. He had reportedly just flown back from Beirut. He was like a Middle East viceroy, trotting around region, giving orders, masterminding small and large ops
2 A combination of elation, relief and fear here in the region among people who suffered tremendously from Suleimani's policies, from Lebanon to Syria and Iraq. Elation and relief because he was seen as the evil mastermind of policies of death and destruction...
