@TheAtlantic contributing writer. Distinguished fellow @ColumbiaIGP Author: BLACK WAVE on Saudi-Iran rivalry. Top 100 NYT books for 2020. Ex BBC and FT.
7 subscribed
Oct 7, 2023 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
*Massive operation/incursion by Hamas inside Israel. V different from anything in past.
*Well planned, must have taken months.
*Must have had outside support - Iran/Hezb.
*Huge intel failure by Israel, caught totally unaware, barley any response in first hours 1/4
All still unfolding.
See this as :
*Iran axis response to Israel normalization talks with Saudi. Also undermines Iran-Saudi normalization
*Palestinian response to worsening/unbearable oppression under occupation. But operation will only make things worse for Pal civilians. 2/4
Aug 13, 2022 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
Appalled and shocked by the attack on #SalmanRushdie. The pen might be mightier than the sword but zealotry and intolerance of all kind seems to trump all. Rushdie once said: “A book is a version of the world. If you do not like it, ignore it; or offer your own version in return”
Ayatollah #Khomeini clearly couldn't live in a world with all sorts of books, even from his grave, his fatwa is a curse, continues to ripple with dangerous effect. Beyond name of attacker, we are still waiting to hear all details of who/what/why/how, but here's some history.
Jul 13, 2022 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
#Thread: Biden just arrived in MidEast, 1st trip since taking office. Re-upping some of my pieces in @TheAtlantic from last year. Despite criticism it's facing, Biden admin is doing reasonably good job, steering, maneuvering, balancing, adjusting where necessary.
Far from perfect but better than critics admit. I don't see Biden disengaging from region, but right-sizing amount of energy any U.S administration devotes to MidEast, long been too much, while at same time inscribing it in wider context, on climate change, food security
Mar 9, 2022 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
A must read by @gcaw on #SaudiArabia and #MBS who has been hiding from public view for 2 yrs.
"He has.. created a climate of fear unprecedented in Saudi history... "When he’s King Mohammed, Crown Prince MBS is going to be remembered as an angel.”
Several layers to this story: the seeming inevitability of MbS accession to throne and the ruthlessness with which he rules=> how do saudis deal with it, how should the outside world deal with it?
Mar 8, 2022 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Read this painful piece about the crushing of a generation in Russia and beyond."In late 2000s, we drifting 20somethings took freedom for granted...Never realising we were living in low-key golden era: a time when things were more or less open..."@b_judahunherd.com/2022/03/the-ru…
and then read my piece from a few months ago in @TheAtlantic about the stunningly rapid loss of freedom and the erasure of progress achieved since the end of Cold War in Lebanon Hong Kong and Afghanistan over the course of just two years.
THREAD-Big. Not just meeting but Israel making it public via sources. Bibi did not cfm nor deny. Saudis wont confirm but hard to deny now There’ve been secret meetings before, coordinating on security/Iran. So why make this public in what was prob coordinated move? Clear msg.
There may have been talk of mil ops ahead of Jan 20. But 1 of KEY objectives for MbS is to fend off pressure from Congress, new Biden admin. Hostility comes from R’s+D’s (Yemen, Khashoggi) Biden said no more blank checks. MbS needs to secure his position, become indispensable
Aug 18, 2020 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
THREAD: many in Lebanon were expecting drama of high profile indictment like Milosevic trial, this was never going to be the case. Tho it acquitted 3 defendants, @STLebanon found 4th guilty. Remember the tribunal had no mandate to prosecute states or parties.
But UN tribunal has now determined beyond doubt that key operative in Hezbollah, a highly centralized political group/militant org, was guilty in plot to assassinate former premier Rafiq Hariri in 05, a politically motivated plot that wud benefit Hezb and patrons in Damascus.
Jan 3, 2020 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
1 THREAD: Middle East waking up to incredible news of Qassem Suleimani's killing in US strike in Iraq, at Baghdad airport. He had reportedly just flown back from Beirut. He was like a Middle East viceroy, trotting around region, giving orders, masterminding small and large ops
2 A combination of elation, relief and fear here in the region among people who suffered tremendously from Suleimani's policies, from Lebanon to Syria and Iraq. Elation and relief because he was seen as the evil mastermind of policies of death and destruction...
7 subscribed
