This Pentagon source certainly surprised us and other researchers, because recently more tanks, self-propelled guns and other armored vehicles were observed moving on trains towards Ukraine.
https://twitter.com/DanLamothe/status/1500909714716209156
In one particular instance, we traced a train seen in Belarus to Cheryoha station, the base of the 104th Guards Air Assault Regiment of the elite 76th Air Assault Division.
https://twitter.com/MotolkoHelp/status/1501124369317253121
We've seen elements of the 76th Division deployed to Ukraine before the invasion. What we see now are likely reserves coming to reinforce the push towards Kyiv, where other paratroopers recently suffered losses.
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1499444724993769473
Pre-war estimates suggest Russia had amassed 120 to 125 battalion tactical groups on the Ukrainian border out of 168 available.
This means 40 more could theoretically be added into the fray, although one can reasonably doubt the performance of these reserve units.
This means 40 more could theoretically be added into the fray, although one can reasonably doubt the performance of these reserve units.
These roughly 40 battalion tactical groups represent the available reinforcements short of a mobilization in Russia, which would be politically costly but not unthinkable.
We will be monitoring these developments closely.
We will be monitoring these developments closely.
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