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Mar 10 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
The best we can realistically hope for with this economy is unimaginable destruction of Earth's biodiversity plus unmanageable damage to human agriculture due to very high global warming impacts, habitat destruction & pollution, all by 2045. Where are the system change headlines?
1. 'Globally, the percentage of species at high risk of extinction will be 9%-14% at 1.5C, 10%-18% at 2C'.

1.75-2.5°C by 2045.

'Among groups containing the greatest numbers of species at high risk of extinction are invertebrates (especially pollinators)'.carbonbrief.org/scientists-rea…
2.

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More from @ClimateBen

Ben See Profile picture
Mar 11
We must avoid 1.5°C-1.7°C of global warming hell.

Climate models show 1.5°C-1.7°C will hit by 2029 without immediate economic system change.

System change may delay 1.5°C-1.7°C even if it can't prevent it.

And anyway, it's crucial: this system won't protect us at 1.5°C-1.7°C.
1. We can protect people and animals, species and ecosystems if we change the economic system, otherwise we're heading for 3°C-4°C by 2065-2100. Climate justice activists have been making this clear for years, decades..

Here's a thread to explore:
2. Biodiversity destruction and tree mortality are horrific at 1.5°C-1.7°C.

If we manage to reduce emissions to zero in the coming years, we must also deal with aerosols which threaten to unmask even more warming.

We can still act to protect species.

Image
Read 5 tweets
Ben See Profile picture
Mar 8
The IPCC's methods are failing to capture a shocking trend: carbon emissions from tropical deforestation this century are far higher than previously thought, doubling in just two decades and continuing to accelerate. 🧵
'Deforestation and forest carbon loss are accelerating.

The standard methods used by the IPCC are not spotting some of the things we’ve seen in this paper..They aren’t really capturing the trend that we’ve seen in the last two decades'.

nationalobserver.com/2022/03/04/new…
The latest IPCC reports are grim, just terrifying.

I have two questions.

Could things be even worse than the IPCC reports suggest further strengthening the already pretty watertight case for system change action?

Where are the system change headlines?

Read 6 tweets
Ben See Profile picture
Mar 7
The Headlines

ABRUPT CLIMATE CHANGE IS HERE

"The current global growth Economy will definitely take us to unthinkable suffering, death and extinctions at 1.8°C or more of global warming by between 2030 and 2090 unless we achieve profound political and economic system change."🧵
1. 'If temperatures rise to between 1.7 and 1.8C above the 1850s level, then the report states that half the human population could be exposed to periods of life-threatening climatic conditions arising from heat and humidity.'

Corals destroyed at 1.4-1.6C.bbc.com/news/science-e…
2. If we get on to a lower emissions pathway in the coming years (emissions are rising towards record levels by 2025) we risk horrific 1.8°C as early as 2030.

Even the best case scenario which few scientists consider plausible may mean 1.8°C by the 2080s.yaleclimateconnections.org/2021/08/key-ta…
Read 8 tweets
Ben See Profile picture
Mar 7
🧵NEW: 'Whilst the “expert” community may be working quite impartially, it does so within highly constrained boundaries imposed directly through funding and indirectly through prevailing hierarchies.'
~ @KevinClimate @IsakStoddard

But things may change. 1/climatechangenews.com/2022/03/04/we-…
'despite its tacit allegiance to the Davos culture, this constellation of enablers holds real power to either legitimise or undermine the status quo'

2/
 climatechangenews.com/2022/03/04/we-…
'the expert community currently just reinforces Davos, but..'

Vital, explosive observation. Another must watch from @NickGBreeze.

3/3
Read 4 tweets
Ben See Profile picture
Mar 6
scientists: extreme climate change has caused irreversible losses to land ecosystems across every region of the world and will soon threaten their very fundamental aspects assuming no economic system change 🧵
1. On this chart from the new IPCC report, purple indicates very high probability of severe impacts/risks, red signifies significant & widespread impacts/risks.

The best case scenario assuming economic growth is 1.6/1.7°C by the 2040s.

2°C is expected.

3°C is possible.

Dire.
2. And the ocean?

It's being wrecked by the global economy even more rapidly and comprehensively.

The highly unlikely (implausible?) best case scenario of 1.6/1.7°C assuming no economic system change will destroy corals meaning extraordinary extinctions.
carbonbrief.org/in-depth-qa-th…
Read 6 tweets
Ben See Profile picture
Mar 6
Like human fingerprints, whale sharks have a unique pattern of spots which allow individual sharks to be identified.

They will soon be extinct due to industrial fishing and the destruction of ocean systems at 1.6- 1.7°C of global warming unless we achieve economic system change.
1. The distribution of whale sharks indicates the presence of plankton and the overall health of oceans.

Industrial fishing, tourism, & abrupt climate change are wiping them out.

NGOs like WWF don't want the system change we need to avoid 1.6/1.7- 5.7°C.worldwildlife.org/species/whale-…
2. 'As climate change alters the opportunities for shelter, reproduction, survival, & food, some marine megafauna will undergo range shifts while others risk extinction.'

Scientists & journalists are generally silent on the need for profound system change.frontiersin.org/articles/10.33…
Read 7 tweets

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