Thread by @TaylorOgan

Tesla Full Self-Driving perspective thread:

One of the difficulties in determining where Tesla falls in the autonomous vehicle space is that Tesla provides essentially no data to the public, especially its FSD Beta program.

Using the limited data we do have, let's compare.

2/ I've put into perspective where Tesla sits relative to the others attempting Level 4-5 in the past:
Here:

https://twitter.com/TaylorOgan/status/1458169941128097800?s=20&t=DHNJp3CZPf1Uqf9WnAaCfw

And here:

https://twitter.com/TaylorOgan/status/1495801455235719183?s=20&t=TIuMgPDlCwuRsM-xo26-4w

But now there is a dataset the Tesla crowd is beginning to (contribute to and) cite.

3/ If you haven't seen it already, there is a data collective where select Tesla FSD Beta testers can manually input milage and disengagements from their drives to track the rate of improvement from version to version.

4/ Now, the average disengagement rates as submitted by the 75 Tesla owners in this are nowhere close to my experience with FSD Beta.

Like, 9.1 miles driven autonomously before a disengagement on urban driving? Or 1,087 miles on the highway before a disengagement? Yeah right.

5/ Regardless, let's use the inflated Tesla numbers and see how they stack up to the disengagement rates of other companies, all of whom submit data to the @CA_DMV annually.

Keep in mind, most of the other companies' data are for their alpha prototypes; Tesla is already on beta.

6/ First, let's chart the "FSDBeta Community Tracker" and convert out of "disengagements per mile"—a metric only used by Tesla (like "FSD")—and flip it around to a metric the big boys use: miles per disengagement.

7/ Let's expand the y-axis. The first milestone under which $TSLA FSD Beta is sitting is @Cruise's CA disengagement rate from 2016. That means in the 2016 reporting period, on avg, Cruise's AVs traveled 54mi autonomously before a test driver or the AV system had to take control.

8/ Zooming out a bit more, we see @autoxtech's 2018 rate of 191 mi/disengagement, which was very impressive for the 1.5-year-old Chinese startup, at the time.

For perspective, Tesla had been selling "FSD-capable" vehicles for longer than AutoX had even existed.

9/ As we zoom out further, Tesla's preposterous 1,087 miles driven autonomously before the driver needs to disengage stat is in full view, but for the sake of argument, we will keep it (in blue) as we...

10/ ...zoom out further.

11/ Now we see the gap between the 2,000 to 5,000 mi/DE, which @Waymo first hurdled in 2016.

More on that here:

https://twitter.com/TaylorOgan/status/1458169946651992069?s=20&t=DHNJp3CZPf1Uqf9WnAaCfw

12/ Let's more-than-double the y-axis scale to 15,000. @PonyAI_tech nearly notched the 15,000 mi-mark last year. Check out the neck-and-neck Waymo/Cruise race a few years ago.

13/ We need to double the scale again to see the 2020 leaders' disengagement rates in CA.

14/ Now nearly double the y-axis AGAIN to see @Cruise and the current leader, @autoxtech's disengagement rates last year.

You need a magnifying glass (or helpful red arrow) to see where @Tesla currently is in comparison.