Thread by @Tom_deWaal

1 A long🧵on the situation in #Transdniestria/#Transnistria, misconceptions and fears that it could turn into a new front in the war.
My main point is there's a shared interest both in Transdniestria (TN) and in right-bank Moldova in stopping the conflict from reaching them.

2 In the end if Russian advance continues to Odessa spread of the conflict to Moldova is quite likely. But internationals should bear in mind that TN is far from eager to be Russia’s helper against Ukraine. It's more complex and to suggest so fans conflict.

3 I spoke to a few people in Chisinau and Tiraspol in last few days. Quick wake-up call came when 8 missiles destroyed Vinnytsia airport and reports said they came from TN. Moldova's MOD quickly denied this. (They were probably fired from Black Sea.)

https://twitter.com/amandamcoakley/status/1500481977853648903

4 Some background (Excuse simplifications). The conflict is 30 years old this month. It was fought between two parts of Soviet Moldavia (Moldova) separated by Dniester River: mainly Romanian-speaking part conquered by USSR in 1940 and the more Russophone Transdniestria.

5 In 1990 when most of Moldova agitated for independence, the Transdniestrians wanted to stay in the USSR. In 1992 they got backing from Russian nationalists and locally based 14th Army to split from newly independent Moldova. There was fighting, around 1,000 people died.

6 It was a brief tragic conflict. But also less toxic than those of the Caucasus for example, being defined by politics, history, geopolitical allegiance not deep hatred. Since then there have been virtually no casualties, people move back and forth freely across the river.

7 Transdniestria declared "independence" but it's semi-integrated with rest of Moldova. They share a postal service, train system. The football team Sheriff Tiraspol plays in the Moldovan league and even beat Real Madrid in the Champion's League.

standard.co.uk/sport/football…

8 Importantly Transdniestria, which has a bigger industrial base, is invested in trade with the EU and has quietly joined the EU’s DCFTA free trade zone as an economic part of Moldova. I wrote about this a few years ago… politico.eu/article/transn…

9 To visitors Tiraspol looks like a Soviet theme park with Lenin statues and hammers and sickles. It's very much part of Russky Mir. That makes for great photos. But one Transdniestrian told me,
“My head is in Russia, but my legs walk towards Europe”
carnegieeurope.eu/2018/12/03/tra…

10 I estimate pop. as between 375,000 and 392,000—much lower than official count. Around 1/2 have Russian passports. Many have a “bouquet” of passports, Ukrainian, Moldovan and Romanian, and therefore visa-free access to the EU.

ceps.eu/wp-content/upl…

11 Not having a border with Russia makes Moscow a patron at arm’s length. Russia could have recognized the territory in 2008 when it recognized Abkhazia and S Ossetia. But it didn’t do so. It's still formally a player in the OSCE 5 + 2 negotiations on Transdniestria’s future.

12 Now to Russian troops. There are 3 battalions of “Russians” in Transdniestria, about 1,500 men in total. Around 1/3 are peacekeepers. Rest form the "OGRF," a remnant of the Soviet 14th Army so there illegally, without host-country consent. Soldiers move between the two.

13 To say “1,500 Russians” is misleading, however: very few are uniformed Russian officers. I've heard a range of 50 to 100 bona fide Russian army personnel. Perhaps 200 more are Russians who stayed on and married local women. The rest are all locals, so less threatening.

14 Now to the key point: business. TN's economy and govt. are mostly run by a powerful business conglomerate Sheriff (they own the football club). Shadowy non-recognized status for decades allows lucrative business and smuggling schemes between Chisinau, Odessa and Tiraspol.

15 Russia’s crucial contribution is to supply free gas via Moldova. Gazprom sends the bill to Moldovagaz, no one pays for it. The unpaid gas debt accrued by Tiraspol may exceed $7 billion.
That’s one reason why pensions and salaries are higher than in right-bank Moldova.

16 What now? De facto president is trying to sound friendly to all. As one colleague said, the strategy is “keep as quiet as possible and pray to God that people in Moscow forget that Transdniestria exists”
novostipmr.com/en/news/22-02-…

17 The eagle-eyed @KamilCaus records one demonstration in Tiraspol supporting Russia but with just 100 people turning out. Not a great show of support

https://twitter.com/KamilCaus/status/1500605347416920065

18 It seems they want best of both worlds. But war has destroyed the economic model. Main border crossing with Ukraine is closed. Russian bank cards could stop working. Sheriff’s foreign currency accounts are all in Russia, may be hard to access. This increases reliance on MD.

19 So what’s the danger? Basically, that – God forbid-- Russian troops could capture Odessa, link up to TN and their small garrison there. It would be payback for years of free gas and political support. The people would be “saved” by Russia – whether they like it or not.

20 “We are waiting,” a friend in Tiraspol said. A Russian intervention would turn everything upside down, pose a major threat to Moldova. Chisinau government is handling things well at moment but after Ukraine all bets are off. One to watch closely.

21 PS Please note that I use the name for the territory as used by the @OSCE. Moldovans mostly say Transnistria (they call the Dniestr river the Nistru) and in the place itself they call it Pridnestroy’ve (By the Dniestr)

22 I’m not a big expert on Transdniestria, just a public one. To read more find, read @stefwolff and @KamilCaus. Read the always interesting @DionisCenusa (though we don’t always agree). Here’s a good recent piece by @AmandaMCoakley
foreignpolicy.com/2022/02/10/ukr…

23 And for the really deep insight get hold of Charles King’s The Moldovans and William Hill’s Russia, the Near Abroad and the West. ENDS wilsoncenter.org/book/russia-th…