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J.E. Dyer Profile picture
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Mar 9 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Interesting sequence with Poland, US, and the MiG-29s.
Monday 7 Mar (reporting time 2053 GMT)
Iran envoy abruptly walks out of Vienna talks
reuters.com/world/middle-e…
1/3
Tuesday 8 Mar (reporting time 2022 GMT)
US govt disclaims knowledge of MiG-29 delivery plan thru Ramstein, says it's "untenable."
apnews.com/article/russia…
2/3
Wednesday 9 Mar (reporting time 1453 GMT)
Iran envoy back in Vienna to resume talks after sudden departure on Monday.
timesofisrael.com/top-iran-nucle…
Just interesting.
3/3
ADDENDUM:
And there it is. Russian demand, as part of Iran talks, on heels of US fold on Poland/MiG-29s, curiously occurring during Iran envoy's sudden walk-out.
Sequence goes from interesting to downright fascinating.

4/3(+)

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More from @OptimisticCon

J.E. Dyer Profile picture
Mar 9
Weird indeed.
Note, in any case, that Iran statement from new USIC threat assessment is a masterpiece of disingenuousness.
s3.documentcloud.org/documents/2139…
1/13
The statement, from p. 15 of the assessment document.
"We continue to assess that Iran is not currently undertaking the key nuclear weapons-development activities that we judge would be necessary to produce a nuclear device. …"
2/13
Some of the disingenuous part:
"Iran continues to increase the size and enrichment level of its uranium stockpile beyond JCPOA limits. Iran continues to ignore restrictions on advanced centrifuge research and development and continues uranium enrichment operations at ..."
3/13
Read 13 tweets
J.E. Dyer Profile picture
Mar 7
Analyses predicting this are holding up well.
In this 12 Jan piece, I was off on how much of Ukraine Putin would put at immediate risk in an invasion. But the case that Putin's real goal is to divide & neutralize NATO stands.
…eoptimisticconservative.wordpress.com/2022/01/12/a-d… 1/4
Pull quote:
"I am confident NATO is not itching for an armed confrontation in Ukraine. The risk is not that there would be one, but that there would spectacularly not be an effective reaction to another Russian move there.
"Rather, it’s at least 50-50 that we would start...2/4
...to see the NATO consensus fall apart, on exactly the matters Putin seeks concessions on."
Putin's actions since indicate he has cut the cord with the status quo ante. That means it's no longer of use to him. It's not a constraint on what he will do.
His naughty list...3/4
Read 4 tweets
J.E. Dyer Profile picture
Mar 5
Not a bad place to be. No-fly zone is a badly flawed proposal in this situation.
Risk to enforcing forces would be significantly greater than in Iraq. Russia has threat of S400 & drawback of poor air space management capabilities.
Russia's using a lot of helos but ... 1/4
...relatively few fixed-wing aircraft (little need for fighter interceptors, & Ru ground strike aircraft relatively hard to defend from ground-to-air threats).
NFZ wd be mainly about helos. Escalation cost of classic model NFZ enforcement for that threat exceeds... 2/4
...benefit.
If US were a belligerent, obvious cost-benefit move wd be to destroy Russian air & SAM assets on ground in Ru/Belarus.
But we're NOT a belligerent, nor is there the slightest benefit to US, NATO or the planet in our becoming one.
Ukraine situation is ... 3/4
Read 4 tweets
J.E. Dyer Profile picture
Feb 27
Caveat regarding situation in Ukraine.
This isn't a warning about unverified claims, images, & video. Ppl are familiar w/that.
Situation overall is evidently a temperate version of "Russia not doing as well as expected."
No need to doubt that, though anecdotes keep falling... 1/7
...apart.
Initial damage/kill numbers rarely reliable in conflict this size. Understood.
Caveat is about taking Russia's failures w/out question as to *why.*
It's not interesting to conclude things are going wrong for Russia.
Russia is DOING everything wrong. Why? 2/7
Russia keeps exposing poorly defended & inadequate advance forces to a counterattack capability the whole world knows is there. Not like it's a surprise.
Russians mounted major entry ops w/out sufficient deep/interdiction fires first. Why?
Russia seems, by report, to... 3/7
Read 7 tweets
J.E. Dyer Profile picture
Feb 23
This is actually an awesome meme-base.

1/6
The POTUS should adopt it.

2/6
Think of the power shots.

3/6
Read 6 tweets
J.E. Dyer Profile picture
Feb 6
Reminder as you ponder this blatant hypocrisy:
The campaign against Rogan doesn't have to convince you.
It only has to convince Spotify. Much, much smaller target demographic, with a lot to lose - not even money so much... 1/5
...as losing a nice future free of relentless assaults on the co.
I wasn't paying much attention to Spotify/Rogan until it became clear it's an organized assault.
Saw the clues; @wokal_distance brings the receipts.
So do pay attention. This is how canceling is done. 2/5
It's not spontaneous or grassroots. In Rogan's case it obviously isn't; indignation about him is all imagined - not demonstrated - b/c high-profile media keep throwing new punches.
Rogan's nobody's "favorite" on L or R. He's just an independent voice. 3/5
Read 5 tweets

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