Thread by @OptimisticCon

Weird indeed.
Note, in any case, that Iran statement from new USIC threat assessment is a masterpiece of disingenuousness.
s3.documentcloud.org/documents/2139…
1/13

https://twitter.com/GLNoronha/status/1501298621743984641

The statement, from p. 15 of the assessment document.
"We continue to assess that Iran is not currently undertaking the key nuclear weapons-development activities that we judge would be necessary to produce a nuclear device. …"
2/13

Some of the disingenuous part:
"Iran continues to increase the size and enrichment level of its uranium stockpile beyond JCPOA limits. Iran continues to ignore restrictions on advanced centrifuge research and development and continues uranium enrichment operations at ..."
3/13

"... the deeply buried Fordow facility. Iran has been enriching uranium hexafluoride (UF6) up to 60 percent U-235 since April 2021, and continues to accumulate UF6 enriched up to 20 percent. The IAEA has verified that Iran is conducting uranium ..."
4/13

"... metal research and development, including producing laboratory-scale quantities of uranium metal enriched up to 20 percent U-235."

A lot of meowing from such a dormant cat.

But that's only part of it.
5/13

Besides enriching uranium in quantities & at a level of purity that together are only applicable to producing warheads, Iran has avowed the ability to enrich to weapons-grade (90 pct)...
reuters.com/world/middle-e…
6/13

... and in Dec 2021 was reportedly preparing for enrichment to 90 pct.
france24.com/en/diplomacy/2…
7/13

Iran continues to test ICBM-capable rockets (the delivery platform element of a weapons program; IRBMs - intermediate range that can hit parts of Eur & all of Israel - in testing for at least 15 yrs).
apnews.com/article/space-…
8/13

And UN-held documentation dated 2003 ("Alleged Studies"), confirmed by docs recovered in Mossad raid in 2018, indicate Iran was conducting warhead-detonation tests (3rd element of weapons program) 20 yrs ago.
Imagery of Parchin special fac. E. of Tehran 11-12 yrs ago ...
9/13

... indicated continuation of probable warhead-related testing.
The only IAEA "inspection" of Parchin, in 2015, was executed by means of Iranians swiping samples and presenting them to inspectors, who were not admitted directly to suspect facilities.
jpost.com/opinion/the-ia…
10/13

Iran is doing (2) or has done (1) work on all 3 elements of nuclear weapons production: fissile material (uranium enrichment), delivery platform (ballistic missiles including ICBMs; numerous successful tests of IRBMs already), & warhead.
11/13

Extremely likely that Iranian plan is to have stock of weapons-grade uranium compiled & missile force tested & in place *before* conducting detectable warhead test.
The possibility is obvious enough to demand discussion by intel community.
12/13

Instead, USIC puts out complacent assurance that seems to key solely on minimal evidence of *recent* warhead-related testing.
Yet UN-verified evidence would depend on direct IAEA access to suspect facs, starting w/Parchin, which IAEA has never had.
13/13