Another day, a million more refugees, dozens more innocent Ukrainian civilians murdered intentionally by Putin's military. Another set of strange excuses for not sending air power so Ukraine can defend itself. 1/8
Feel free to call me a paranoid Russian, but US statements combined with what I'm hearing leave an unpleasant picture of American priorities regarding Putin and the future of Ukraine. It seems they are still trying to make deals with a mass murderer. 2/8
Bennett's shuttle diplomacy, Russia still at the Iran deal table, public bickering with Poland over jets - all with no explanation of the White House's aims or rationales. Is Putin to be cut off or bargained with? It cannot be both, not while his genocide accelerates. 3/8
I fear the US wants a face-saving exit for Putin, to pressure Ukraine to surrender, the worst sanctions lifted, Crimea & E Ukraine still occupied. Promises to Zelensky to pay for rebuilding, sorry for the massacre. Russian accord on Iran deal & Kerry's green delusions. 4/8
Call this a conspiracy, but what explanation is there for not doing everything possible to defend Ukraine? NATO nations, including the US, are already sending weapons. Jets no, because no one wants responsibility for protecting a besieged people from mass murder? 5/8
As disastrous as that would be, allowing Putin to regroup & prepare his next escalation, sending such overtures is also the worst signal to give. It shows weakness and fear, so Putin knows he can continue his bombardment knowing no help is coming. 6/8
As I said after the first day, deterrence is over. Strong sanctions and limited weapons to Ukraine would have stopped Putin 8 years ago, perhaps even 4 months ago. Now it's all-out war, civilians being bombed & shelled, and the US is still acting like it's 2014. 7/8
The White House must do the right thing or explain why it is refusing to. At best it's cowardice & an attempt to do nothing until nothing can be done. At worst, they are sacrificing Ukrainian lives to negotiate with Putin on things they deem higher priorities. 8/8
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Why are we always hearing about what the US and NATO won't do and never about what they will do? It's been one green light after another for Putin. Now Syria and Belarus are invited to slaughter Ukrainians in Ukraine.
Stop telling me NATO isn't obliged to defend Ukraine from Putin's war crimes. The obligation is moral. The rationale is strategic. You aren't obliged to spout Kremlin talking points on social media, but you're doing it anyway.
We heard all these same arguments about how any intervention in Ukraine would lead to war in 2014. Now war has come anyway and we have the blood of tens of thousands of innocents on our hands and a stain on our soul.
Is there a reason Burns still has his job? Either Putin's invasion was one of the worst intel failures of all time, or he was fooled and made a terrible call. Or there are deals they care about more than Ukraine. He met with Patrushev in November, what did they talk about?
Being a diplomat, even a Russia expert, may not be of much use during a war, when Putin sees any lifeline of communication as a sign of weakness. Is he still giving orders after being so catastrophically wrong?
If US intel was sure Putin was going to invade, as it seemed to be, why didn't they arm the hell out of Ukraine and implement sanctions immediately, as I and others implored at the time? Not to "provoke" Putin when he was already set on war? Makes no sense.
Again we must ask why the US is dragging its feet, and NATO's, on giving Ukraine the airpower it needs. It's been two weeks. If they wanted it to happen, it would. Putin knows this, too. Are they still looking for some deal with this mass murderer?
How can they be worried about "provoking" Putin when he's bombarding civilians? This is war, this is a slaughter, and leaving all escalation to Putin only encourages him to escalate further. Has the lesson since 2014 not sunk in that you cannot meet power with weakness?
I've been reserved in my criticism of the White House because they have taken some long overdue action. But this strange dance over jets smells. They need to stop covering their ass and start covering Ukrainian civilians from the bombs Putin built with Western money.
Years of hearing that no action could be taken against Putin's propaganda outlets in the West, all for what? To wait for him to launch all-out war and kick you out anyway. As with many companies setting up there, handing Putin hostages he could use for leverage.
I can't count how many times the biggest tech & social media companies have told us they couldn't "take a side" or "criticize Russia" because it would put their employees there at risk. Mostly that meant their profits, of course.
Even good-faith engagement becomes appeasement and collaboration as corruption spreads. As I wrote in Winter Is Coming, the road to Hell may be paved with good intentions, but compromises on principle are the streetlights.
Of course regime change is a goal in Russia, whether Blinken can say it or not! Putin is the source, the disease of a thousand symptoms. You don't compromise with cancer, you cut it out.
Putin won't believe the united front isolating him and Russia will hold thanks to comments like this, continued negotiations with Russia on the Iran deal, Scholz saying the EU will keep buying Russian energy, etc. He has waited the West out before, many times.
This is why institutional continuity has always been critical to deterrence. Put Putin's isolation into law, the default—make it permanent so his mafia and Russians know there is no way back with Putin.
Putin has been pumping poison into their heads for 20 years, every channel & outlet. For perspective, it took Trump, Facebook, and one cable news station a few months to turn a third of Americans against democracy.
The longer it goes on, the harder it is to get out. It's like being in a cult. The moment you admit you are being lied to, you have to accept that you've been lied to, and lying, and gone along with it for a very long time. Your mind and ego resist.
It was over 10 years ago when we estimated it would take around 6 weeks of unregulated media in Russia to get rid of Putin. It would take longer now, real deprogramming. Showing people the truth isn't enough if they simply won't believe their own eyes.