Observations/thoughts about the Russian military train and #Anacondaplan
A thread about railways as a game changer in the logistics narrative. According to John, the train was seen in this vicinity - note tracks intact:
A thread about railways as a game changer in the logistics narrative. According to John, the train was seen in this vicinity - note tracks intact:
https://twitter.com/john_marquee/status/1500856476633481218
We had a look at the history of military railways in a previous thread. The use of railways will be similar, but not the same in this war #Ukraine
https://twitter.com/HistorianBlood/status/1501585061648519175
The issue.
Russian rail supply and it’s been in operation long before the war started. Integrating these movements to the Ukraine rail network is quite straightforward.
Images: ibtimes, 112.international, thedrive.com
Russian rail supply and it’s been in operation long before the war started. Integrating these movements to the Ukraine rail network is quite straightforward.
Images: ibtimes, 112.international, thedrive.com
The evidence and reports:
There is absolutely no reference to sabotage or strikes against the railways. All information indicates the trains are still able to roll in most areas - both electric and diesel power. The military train was filmed moving freely.
There is absolutely no reference to sabotage or strikes against the railways. All information indicates the trains are still able to roll in most areas - both electric and diesel power. The military train was filmed moving freely.
Map 1: the train was in the vicinity marked in green. This was in the area of the most recent Russian gains.
Image: Ministry of Defence
Image: Ministry of Defence
The rails in the fighting zone are intact and movement is possible. Issues:
1. Even at greatly reduced level, rail can still maintain supply.
2. Rail can move strategically faster than the UA.
3. Hard to defend if not secured.
3. the UA are not pulling up the rails!
1. Even at greatly reduced level, rail can still maintain supply.
2. Rail can move strategically faster than the UA.
3. Hard to defend if not secured.
3. the UA are not pulling up the rails!
Ukrainian railway maps 1: the network is no longer WW2 vintage. The system is vast and in-depth, running north-south and east-west. The rails hubs are the strategic targets for Russia and the UA’s defence.
Images: dlca.logcluster.org
Images: dlca.logcluster.org
If the Military Train is testing the network for security and load bearing, there will be a significant shift in Russian operations to the south. Those familiar with the 1943 campaign will know why.
Image: Purnell
Image: Purnell
The weather is breaking/ground gradually hardening, rail movement can ramp up a decision toward a southern pincer. The strengths: reduced movement for the UA, naval support and air power. Map highlights the southern railway network:
Image: dlca.logcluster.org
Image: dlca.logcluster.org
Strategic opportunities: Russians can force the UA to shift in direction, a dangerous manoeuvre for a defender in a fight. South flank - NATO threatened by the presence of Russian forces//anti-aircraft screens. Other countries are exposed to Russian influence.
Based on informed speculation, the presence of the Armoured Train presents analysts of the logistics thesis and the irregular warfare experts with a dilemma - how to advise change of UA strategy in the middle of a fight without losing ground or undermining the defence?
Irregular chaos: UA not configured for irregular war and Putin’s trains do not appear configured to ground defence - upward firing guns. However, Putin’s constant shifts are exposing/undermining UA’s military cohesion.
Images: thedrive.com
Images: thedrive.com
Additional point. Railways enable the secure movement of chemicals and biological weapons//troops.
Notice how this is developing:
https://twitter.com/iaponomarenko/status/1501348956902604800
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